Two tips for the International Stakes and one for the Bunbury Cup
Flat season 2022: bets 26, 27 & 28
Most followers of racing, with the exception of ardent republicans, were hoping that the absent Queen would enjoy a Royal Ascot winner during her Platinum Jubilee year.
Due to a mix of poor riding and bad luck, that didn’t happen. Even her 2/5 on shot, Reach For The Moon, failed to land the spoils in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes.
The Queen’s horse Saga should have won the Britannia Stakes but, as his trainer John Gosden noted somewhat publicly, Frankie Dettori gave the horse far too much to do and the three-year-old colt was second, beaten a head. Trainer and jockey have since gone their separate ways.
Equally unlucky, but through no real fault of the jockey, was the Queen’s horse TACTICAL in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. Held up in the near side group by Ryan Moore, the four-year-old colt was denied a clear run two furlongs out and eventually finished 6th of the 29 runners, beaten just over two lengths by the winner.
I expect Tactical to return to Ascot on Saturday July 23 to contest the equally competitive Moet & Chandon International Stakes, also over seven furlongs. This time, with better luck in running, he can capture a big handicap for Her Majesty.
I am suggesting 2 points win at 12-1 with several bookies. I don’t like the odds for a place in a 29-runner race, given most bookies are currently offering only four places ante post and we don’t know where the horse will be drawn on Ascot’s straight course.
I am going into this race double-handed, however, as I am also recommending a 2 points win bet at 20-1 with several bookies on AIR TO AIR. The up-and-coming trainer George Boughey has long had a high opinion of his four-year-old gelding.
That seemed justified when he won well at Newmarket and Doncaster last season. But he was disappointing when favourite for the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, and then appeared to go off the boil.
He had a ten-month break before his seasonal debut at York last week, where he won well. He appears back to his very best and, if so, is capable of winning a big handicap like the International Stakes.
As regular readers of this newsletter will know, I thought STAR OF ORION would run a huge race in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot earlier this month. I am sure he would have had a hand in the finish but for being slowly away and then meeting trouble at every turn. His jockey, Rob Hornby, gave him, and indeed some of his other mounts at the royal meeting, a distinctly uninspired ride.
Hopefully, my/our money lost to the bookmakers on Star of Orion will be returned with interest as I make him a decent each way bet at 16-1 generally to land the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on Saturday week (July 9). Back him with Betfred offering five places.
Star of Orion has winning form at the course from last season and can show that his recent Royal Ascot run, in which he eventually finished 13th of the 29 runners, was all wrong with a much improved display in nine days’ time.
Regarding this weekend’s racing, the Coral-Eclipse is too hard for me with all six runners officially rated closely together. So there is no recommended bet in this Group 1 contest or elsewhere this weekend.
As always, if you are enjoying this newsletter please recommend it to a friend.
One for the horse tracker
Trainer Grant Tuer’s runners tend to perform well when the money is down. That was certainly the case with Dreamcasing at Thirsk on Wednesday. Backed from 40-1 overnight into 6-1 in a 20-runner handicap, he ran a cracking race to finish second to Brazen Idol. Tuer’s four-year-old gelding was clearly inconvenienced by his low draw in stall 2 with eight of the first nine runners home drawn in stall 13 or higher. Dreamcasting will go up a few pounds in the ratings for his improved run but he can land a big sprint handicap sooner rather than later and recoup losses for any connections who put their money down win only.
Pending:
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: - 8.79 points.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).