Two tips for the Betfair Hurdle next weekend after our 7-1 winner yesterday
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 28, 29 and 30
It’s always a challenge trying to find the winner of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, one of the most competitive handicaps of the season.
I have had a shortlist for the race for some time but I have been keeping my powder dry, betting wise, until I had a better insight into the likely going at the course next Saturday.
If the ground was likely to be “soft” or “heavy”, I would have been tempted to put up Alan King’s Tritonic, who has been aimed at the race for some time, or Gary Moore’s Fifty Ball, who was second last year and is now back to the same rating of 131.
The ground at Newbury is currently described as “good to soft, soft in places.” But it looks like a largely dry week of weather ahead, so I am favouring two well-handicapped improvers who have been wrapped in cotton wool for the past two months in order to target this race.
The first is I LIKE TO MOVE IT, for the in-form Twiston-Davies trainer and son team. He has three wins from his last four runs and has the advantage of not being ground dependent.
Nigel Twiston-Davies loves to target big prizes, both over chases and hurdlers, with novices as he rightly argues that they may be ahead of the handicapper given their limited number of runs and scope for improvement.
The other horse I fancy is ground dependent so I am hoping the weather forecasters have it right. Neil King’s gelding, ONEMOREFORTHEROAD, won his first three races this season before being beaten by Tritonic at Ascot.
However, he is 3 lbs better off against that rival this time and will be better suited by both the bigger field and the course on Saturday. He is far better on “good” or “good to soft” ground.
Both my fancies are due to race off the same weight and both are widely available at 12-1. Take that price today each way, paying a quarter of the odds for four places. I’d be disappointed if one of them didn’t make the frame to cover both bets and both geldings have real chances of winning the race too.
I also can’t resist backing my “cliff horse” (that’s a horse a gambler backs every time it runs, even following it over a cliff). The horse is ANNSAM who has an entry in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton on February 26. In time, this horse is going to prove far superior to his current rating of 140. But since I have no inside information on whether he is being targeted at this valuable contest, worth more than £85,000 to the winner, I am backing him win only. So 2 points win at 11-1 with several bookies is the suggestion rather than the usual 1 point each way (the odds for a place are too short given he is not certain to line up).
One for the horse tracker
As readers of this newsletter know, I was very sweet on the chances of Green Book at Sandown on Saturday and he duly obliged having been tipped at 7-1. I had expected him to win comfortably but he was pushed all the way to the line by Beauport. Beaten less than a length, this consistent gelding pulled more than seven lengths clear of the rest of the talented field. He will go up a few pounds in the ratings for this huge run but I loved his battling attitude. He’s now been runner-up in three successive races but he has been unlucky to bump into three very decent rivals. His future probably lies over chases but Beauport can land a big pot over hurdles before perhaps tackling the larger obstacles next season.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd+2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
Pending:
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Onemorefortheraod at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2 ponts win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total - 13.1 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.