Two more Festival fancies and a horse for the Morebattle Hurdle next weekend
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 34, 35 & 36
The entries for all the Cheltenham Festival handicaps have been published and most bookmakers are offering Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) on all races.
This means that anyone betting ante-post now, especially each way in handicaps, needs to be confident they are going to beat the odds offered on the day of the race, when most bookies will be offering many more places than they are now.
Having studied the entries carefully I am putting up just one handicapper who has two entries, unusually one over hurdles and another over chases.
Most expert tipsters and punters are looking for a progressive young horse, particularly a novice, for the handicaps. Yet the horse that I fancy at huge odds is the reverse of this – a ten-year-old gelding whose ability is generally on the decline.
But GLOBAL CITIZEN is definitely no back number judged on his last two runs over hurdles. Both were non-handicaps, so he was weighted on unfavourable terms with most of his rivals.
He ran well when third behind Goshen at Sandown earlier this month in a Listed race, and he ran even better behind Tommy’s Oscar in a Grade 2 at Haydock in January.
Now that Ben Pauling’s veteran is due to revert to handicap company again at the Festival, he can make his mark felt. He has a rating of just 136 over hurdles and 134 over chases.
Global Citizen is most likely to run in the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle on the last day of the Festival, so take the 40-1 NRNB with bet365 paying four places. But just in case he runs in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase on the Wednesday, also take the 50-1 NRNB for that race with William Hill paying five places.
The Arkle Novices’ Chase on day one of Cheltenham often cuts up late on and this year may be no exception. With the possibility of seven or less runners on March 15, taking the three places now on offer ante post looks a good move.
The race is most likely to be won by Alan King’s Edwardstone or one of the well-backed Irish horses. But the one horse who is overpriced is Henry de Bromhead’s MAGIC DAZE, who ran well to be runner-up in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle a year ago at the Festival.
De Bromhead loves to take advantage of the mares’ 7 lbs allowance against colts/geldings in championship races. Magic Daze could be an underrated chaser on the evidence of her victory in a mares’ beginners’ chase at Cork in November, admittedly against fairly weak opposition.
Take the 16-1 NRNB each way three places on her for the Arkle with William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and other bookies.
Finally, it’s always nice to have a big-priced winner in the run-up to Cheltenham to boost the betting coffers. I am putting up CORMIER at 14-1 with William Hill for the valuable bet365 Morebattle Handicap Hurdle at Kelso next Saturday.
Brain Ellison’s gelding won well at Cheltenham last month and has gone up 4 lbs in the ratings for that win to a mark of 134. That race was on good ground and his trainer insists he is a much better horse on soft or heavy ground.
So with likely cut in the ground next weekend, Cormier can offset his rise in the ratings before, hopefully, going on to contest the County Hurdle at the Festival, also over the minimum trip.
One for the horse tracker
Kitty’s Light returned to form yesterday when a gallant runner-up to stablemate Cap Du Nord in the Coral Trophy at Kempton. Christian Williams’ gelding is still only six and was rated 149 over chases earlier this season before losing his way a little. His rating yesterday was 140 and he will go up a few pounds for his top run. However, he can strike before the season is out, possibly in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, a race in which he was an unlucky third last year.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 for the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 for the Grand Annual NRNB, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheraod at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unpalced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
2021-22 jumps season running total - 19.1 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.