I had promised not to put up horses ante post that are ground dependent. But all rules are made to be broken. With a dry forecast for the week ahead, I am going to suggest backing two horses today that definitely need fast ground to be at their best. Both are due to run on Saturday.
The first is POTTERMAN who I rate as excellent each way bet at 16-1 (with several bookies) in a wide-open Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury. He ran a personal best at Wincanton earlier this month when second in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase.
That run was all the more impressive because Alan King was certain his horse would need the race on his seasonal debut. The trainer made it clear that Saturday’s Newbury contest was always going to be Potterman’s target for the first half of the season. Potterman fell in the Ladbrokes Trophy last year but, granted a clear round and another week of fair weather, he can make his presence felt.
Another horse that is at least 7 lbs better on good ground rather than heavy is the Evan Williams grey SILVER STREAK.
Silver Streak is due to take his chance in the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. He will need better luck that he has had in previous outings. Last year, he was carried out by a loose horse (Not So Sleepy) at the second hurdle. The year before, the ground was heavy, leaving him with no realistic chance.
The race has attracted 21 runners but I expect it to cut up considerably before the off. The 10-1 each way on Silver Streak could look decent come Saturday. If the horses at the front of the market run to their best, he may not win, but I would be disappointed if he does not make the frame if he gets his preferred terrain.
Unlike Potterman, Silver Streak was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Kempton last month when beaten at odds-on behind Sceau Royal. His hurdling was poor that day but he looked ring rusty and should strip fitter on Saturday.
Two “horse tracker” winners
Hopefully this newsletter is starting to pay off. The first two of my tracker horses ran last week and both won, including Dans Le Vent at 16-1. I thought he would be worth following when up in trip and he landed the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday when stepped up from two miles to three. Earlier another tracker horse Annual Invictus triumphed at Plumpton (admittedly at long odds on) to give the “horse tracker” selections a 100 per cent record to date. Furthermore, last week’s ante post selection Buzz – put up at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March – is now a top priced 8-1 for the race after an easy win at Ascot. As noted last week, he will be even better when the rain arrives and he races on proper winter ground.
One for the horse tracker
On to this week’s tracker. I loved the way that Jetoile pulled almost 10 lengths clear of his ten rivals in a maiden hurdle at Chepstow on Friday. This may not have been the strongest contest, but he had the race won some way out. Trained in an unfashionable yard (by Ryan Potter in Winchcombe near Cheltenham), Jetoile may race under the radar for his next outing. This six-year-old gelding seems suited to decent ground but, if he goes well on soft too and keeps improving, he could be one to follow for the rest of the season.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced.
Pending:
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Buzz for the Stayers’ Hurdle at 20-1, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -6 points.
My record over the past six years
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.