Two fancies for the big weekend handicaps, plus another horse for the Grand National
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 18, 19 and 20
As well as being a hugely talented dual-purpose trainer, Alan King is a creature of habit. He loves to target the same big races, season after season.
He has already won the Classic Chase at Warwick three times, most recently with NOTACHANCE a year ago, when the gelding took charge of the race off a rating of 139.
On Saturday, Notachance returns to Warwick to try to win the race for a second time in a row. A string of disappointing races mean he is off exactly the same rating. His four starts since the win last year win read PPP6. But there were excuses for his two poor runs at the end of last season as he received a serious injury to one of his hooves.
At the start of this season, King made no secret that Notachance’s big target for the season would be a second win in the Classic Chase. I expect to see a much better performance on Saturday.
There are dangers aplenty. Commodore won impressively at Cheltenham last month on his seasonal reappearance. And Eclair Surf has long been on my radar to land a big staying chase, but he would prefer more rain than he is likely to get.
On balance, take the 9-1 each way now on Notachance with Paddy Power and Betfair, both paying four places. Barring a late setback, he is a certain starter.
Another horse to have been targeted at one of the big weekend prizes for some time is Ben Pauling’s QUINTA DO MAR.
The seven-year-old gelding has won two of his three starts this term. But he was only fourth on his most recent run at Cheltenham, in a modest 12-runner handicap last month.
He can return to winning form in the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle off a mark of 135. Pauling has already jocked up Luca Morgan for the ride and he is well worth his 5lbs claim. The youngster has won on two of his last six rides, both for Pauling.
Back Quinta do Mar at 16-1 each way with several bookies. As with Notachance, he will line up provided he has no late setback.
Finally, I am not one of those punters who feels embarrassed to back several horses in a huge handicap, provided the odds are right. William Hill has overreacted in pushing MIGHTY THUNDER out to 50-1 for the Aintree Grand National after the horse was pulled up in the Welsh Grand National.
Lucinda Russell reported last season’s Scottish Grand National winner to be in good form, and Aintree is very much his target for the season. Mighty Thunder will not be the first or last horse who did not relish running at Chepstow in a bog. He will be a different horse on better ground in the spring.
Odds of 50-1 are an insult to the abilities of both the horse and his Grand National winning trainer, especially as this sound jumper is almost certain to make the “cut” off a mark of 148, provided he stays fit and well.
One for the horse tracker
Jamie Snowden has a tough, improving mare on his hands judged from the way Anythingforlove outran her odds in the Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Mares’ Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday. The seven-year-old was “wrong” at the weights with lots of her rivals in this Listed contest compared with a handicap. She clearly relishes heavy ground based on this run and her previous one, when easily landing a four-runner contest at Ffos Las. She can strike again if returned to handicap company on soft or heavy ground for her next start.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2021, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -15.5 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.