I am always keen to bet antepost when I want to take on a short-priced favourite in a big race: step forward Mujtaba in next weekend’s bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap.
I am sure Mujtaba is an improving horse that could be group class given time, but his trainer William Haggas is equally certain that his four-year-old gelding needs cut in the ground to be at his best.
If the long-range forecasts for next weekend are accurate, Mujtaba will not get his favoured conditions. Odds as short as 4-1 look terrible value to me for Newmarket’s annual 35-runner cavalry charge.
Add to the mix the fact that three of the past five winners have won at odds of 40-1 or more and it seems sensible to look elsewhere for the winner – ideally an improving horse that prefers fast ground and that has form over nine furlongs or further.
I am confident that the form of Protagonist’s win last time out at Sandown is rock solid and this horse and Dual Identity, who was the fast-finishing runner-up at the Esher track, look sure to run well. The trouble is their odds of around 9-1 and 12-1 respectively are not attractive.
Instead I am going to put up two horses at bigger odds. The first is from the in-form yard of trainer Roger Varian, who completed a 34,838-1 seven timer yesterday, just a week after landing the Cazoo St Leger with Eldar Eldarov.
LEGEND OF DUBAI was runner-up to Mujtaba last time out at Doncaster but that was his first run after being gelded and he was not given a hard race when beaten. He has winning course form at Newmarket and ticks a lot of the boxes needed to win this race.
Take the 16-1 each way with bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and others, even though these bookies only paying four places. You will get up to twice as many places, of course, if you wait for the 48-hour declarations.
For my second bet, I am going to go for a horse at a much bigger price that looks to have been aimed at this race all season. Trainer Marcus Tregoning loves targeting the Cambridgeshire and has won it twice with the same horse: Bronze Angel in 2012 and 2014.
At first glance, PEROTTO seems to have no chance of winning such a big race having beaten only one horse home in his last four races. But they were all small field contests of no more than six runners in each race.
Perotto is much better suited to big-field handicaps and is now down to a nice mark of 103 from a high of 110 just a year ago.
Perotto is still only four years old and has plenty of time to land more big races. He won the 29-runner Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot in June of last year off a mark of 99 and loves fast ground.
Take the 33-1 each way Sky Bet paying five places, although he is the same price with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes, paying a place less.
I was tempted to go into this ultra-competitive race three-handed with another Roger Varian runner, Kitsune Power, who is an improving three-year-old judged on his last two runs at Goodwood and Beverley. But you can’t back them all so I am putting my hard-earned on just the two horses.
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One for the horse tracker
Bernardo O’Reilly has long been a favourite of his trainer Richard Spencer and, despite being eight years old, continues to put up some big performances in sprint handicaps. He was third in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup yesterday despite a slow start and, because Dusky Lord was such a comfortable winner, the placed horses are unlikely to be raised much by the handicapper. Bernardo O’Reilly is even better on softer ground and he can land a 6 furlong handicap before the season is out judged on this performance.
Pending:
1point each way Legend of Dubai at 16-1 for the Cambridgeshire, 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Perotto at 33-1 for the Cambridgeshire, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
2 points win Intellogent at 8-1 for the John Smith’s Cup. 3rd. – 2 points.
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 16-1 for the International Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 12-1 for the Coral Chesterfield Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hydroplane at 10-1 for the Coral Goodwood Handicap, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Montassib at 10-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ouzo at 16-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 4th + 2.2 points
1 point each way Acklam Express at 15/2 for the Qatar King George Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Inver Park at 16-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Summerghand at 20-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 11-1 for the Stewards Cup Sprint, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Copper Knight at 25-1 for the Sky Bet and Symphony Group Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Cruyff Turn at 16-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Blue for You at 14-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. 1st. + 17.5 points.
2 points win Titan Rock at 17/2 for the Abacus Securities 20-Year Anniversary Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 18-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Euchen Glen at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ever Present at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, 1/5 odds, 5 places with Sky Bet, NRNB. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 for the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap, with bet365, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 12-1 for the National Racehorse Week Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Island Brave at 33-1 for the Old Borough Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. + 41.25
1 point each way Zechariah at 12-1 for the StLeger, 1/5th odds, 3 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point win Gulliver at 16-1 for the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint at the Curragh, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 6th. +2.2 points.
2 points Fresh at 14-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
point each way Gulliver at 33-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Bielsa at 10-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: + 10.61 points
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).