Two 20-1 shots to whet the appetite as the Cheltenham Festival nears
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 34 & 35
Irish trainers ruled at the Cheltenham Festival last year, winning no less than 23 of the 28 races, including routing their British counterparts in most of the big handicaps.
It means that it is impossible to see the Prestbury Cup – the competition to see whether British or Irish horses win most races at the Festival – staying on home soil this year.
But I expect British handlers to fare much better next month, particularly on the first day and in the handicaps. I have already, in my newsletter of February 3, made the case for Full Back in the Ultima Chase and Saint Segal in the Boodles Juveniles’ Hurdle.
Today I will highlight the strong chances of another British-trained horse from a yard whose fortunes are faring much better now than they did a year ago.
Colin Tizzard is prone to giving an emotional interview after one of his favourite horses has landed a big prize and the tears look certain to flow again if he can land one more Festival winner before handing over his yard to his likeable son, Joe.
Many experts see Eldorado Allen in the Ryanair Chase as Tizzard’s best chance of a Festival winner but I think he has a better opportunity with a rejuvenated horse, ELIXIR DE NUTZ, in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase over the minimum trip.
Don’t forget that this eight-year-old gelding was a Grade 1 winning hurdler three years ago when landing the Tolworth Hurdle and his official hurdles' rating later rose to a lofty 153.
But he suffered an injury setback as a six-year-old and his best performances appeared to be behind him. That was until this season and he has now won his last two races, being particularly impressive at Kempton last time out. Admittedly that was only a four-runner race, but he routed his field by 13 lengths and went up 8 lbs in the ratings accordingly.
His new rating of 143 means that he is almost certain to make the “cut” for the Grand Annual. He has an entry in the Arkle Novices’ Chase too but his owner, Terry Warner, has indicated the handicap route is the one that he favours. Take the 20-1 each way Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) with Paddy Power for the Grand Annual, paying five places.
Don’t you, er, just “love” trainers who change their horses’ big-race targets for little or no reason? A week ago, Nicky Henderson stated that the Coral Trophy at Kempton would be Caribean Boy’s prep run for the Grand National – only to declare him for yesterday’s Swinley Chase at Ascot.
The decision was illogical. Caribean Boy had little chance of winning on bottomless Ascot ground yesterday and was duly pulled up. This means our ante-post bets for the Kempton race are almost certainly down the pan as he is very unlikely to race again this Saturday.
Still, I am hoping this proves to be a blessing in disguise. We already have Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy but I am going to go in again backing ZANZA simply because he is too big a price at 20-1. He’s not one to rely on, given his jumping frailties, but his second to Coole Cody in the Racing Post Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December gives him a massive chance off the same 145 rating.
If he jumps well, being upped in trip to three miles should be ideal. Take the 20-1 each way with Betfred and other bookies now that trainer Philip Hobbs had indicated he intends to run Zanza at Kempton on Saturday.
One for the horse tracker
Christopher Wood ran an encouraging first race for Venetia Williams at Ascot yesterday after being switched from Paul Nicholls’ yard earlier this month. The seven-year-old gelding had no chance against handicap “good thing” Good Risk At All, who will prove to be much better than his rating yesterday of just 127. But Christopher Wood kept on well to the line, drawing 34 lengths clear of the third horse. He will go up little or nothing in the ratings for that run and, as he is not ground dependent, can land a nice handicap hurdle for his new yard sooner rather than later.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase.
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 for the Grand Annual NRNB, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheraod at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total - 13.1 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.