The chance of a unique double at Aintree; plus a horse for my favourite race of the jumps season
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 8 & 9
Until this season, the Betway Grand Sefton and the Becher Handicap Chase were run at the same meeting in early December, but this year Aintree decided to bring the Grand Sefton forward by a month. MAC TOTTIE showed a liking for the Grand National fences to win that race on November 6th, which means he has the opportunity to land a unique double in the Becher on Saturday (December 4th).
Peter Bowen’s eight-year-old gelding will have to race off a 7 lbs higher mark of 142 this weekend. He is also stepping up five furlongs in trip, to 3 miles 2 furlongs.
I am convinced Mac Tottie will be even more effective over the longer distance than he was in November, when he finished a length clear of another course specialist, Senior Citizen. The pair were 12 lengths or more ahead of the rest of the field.
Mac Tottie already has winning form over 3 miles, having won at Newbury in March when he showed no sign of stopping after he crossed the finishing line. Indeed, connections have so much faith in his stamina that they are dreaming of bringing him back to Aintree for a third time to contest the Grand National itself in April.
Ground-wise, Mac Tottie handles anything from “good” to “soft” but not “heavy”. Take the 12-1 each way with Ladbrokes or Coral. Last year’s easy winner Vieux Lion Rouge and the spring-heeled grey Snow Leopardess are among his biggest dangers.
I am also suggesting a second maximum bet, this time in my favourite race of the jumps season – the Coral Welsh Grand National. The bookmakers look to have the top of the market right with last year’s winner Secret Reprieve and Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early vying to be favourite.
But at the current odds, I want to be on another horse that has been targeted at this race for the best part of a year – the Paul Nicholls-trained HIGHLAND HUNTER.
The eight-year-old grey gelding has yet to run this season but that’s only because of the lack of rain. His canny handler will almost certainly find a suitable prep race for him over the coming week or so.
Highland Hunter was a progressive novice chaser last term and ran particularly well when fifth in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. The form of that race has worked out exceptionally well and Highland Hunter would not have enjoyed the quick-ish ground,
He prefers the going “soft” or “heavy,” which Chepstow normally delivers for its Christmas fixture. Back him each way at 14-1, once again with either Ladbrokes or Coral.
One for the horse tracker
Annsam was given a positive ride by talented apprentice Isabel Williams at Newbury on Saturday. That was his second attempt to win a handicap hurdle this season. I suspect that his trainer Evan Williams will switch him back to fences for his next start. Annsam showed a liking for the larger obstacles last season, including landing a Ludlow handicap chase by no less than 42 lengths in December. Back him to win a handicap chase when next put over fences.
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Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places (cash back option). Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2021, with bet365, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -10 points.
My record over the past six years
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.