The big one… A Grand National preview, with three new tips at Aintree for today and tomorrow
Jumps season 2021-2 “max bets” 49, 50 & 51
The Randox Grand National tomorrow offers the racing world a wonderful opportunity to “sell” its prize product to a global audience – and so often there is a great story attached to the winning horse, too.
Last year, Rachael Blackmore became the first female jockey to win the race when she coaxed Minella Times to victory after more than four miles two furlongs and 30 fences.
This year there are plenty of potential “good tales” on offer too. One of the favourites, the grey Snow Leopardess, could become the first mother to win the world-famous race – she took two years off from the sport to have a foal.
A win for either Fiddlerontheroof or Lostintranslation would guarantee emotional scenes as their trainer, Colin Tizzard, is about to retire and hand over his operation to his son, Joe.
But which horse is going to win?
I would be confident of one thing: that British trainers will fare much better than they did a year ago when 10 of the first 11 runners to cross the finishing line were trained in Ireland. That was embarrassing for the home team of handlers.
From a betting point of view, I like this race because it is not the lottery that everyone makes out. Yes, there is plenty that can go wrong in a 40-horse field over a marathon trip and a degree of luck is essential.
But every year the race is won by the same sort of animal: a well-handicapped horse with near endless stamina who is a sound jumper, who handles the ground conditions and who has a talented jockey able to judge the pace of the race.
I think the bookies have the market wrong this year - too many horses near the top of the betting market are far too short in price whereas there are several runners with a real chance of winning whose odds are 25-1 or bigger.
My very first advised bet of this jumps’ season was for the Grand National: each way on Any Second Now after his unlucky run when third in the race last year. He was a really good bet then at 20-1 then but he makes little appeal at his current price of 10-1 or less, as he has gone up in the weights for his third place 12 months ago.
I put up Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 after his win at Wetherby in December. He would still have an outsider’s chance despite a poor run last time out at Kempton.
My enthusiasm for both Dingo Dollar and Mighty Thunder was based on their respective runs in last year’s Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr. Then Mighty Thunder beat Dingo Dollar by three quarters of a length and this current season for both geldings has been built around Aintree ever since.
More recently I warmed to the chances of last year’s seventh in the race, Discorama, because he apparently comes into the contest in better shape than 12 months ago after a wind operation to help his breathing and a sound prep race in Ireland too. First time cheekpieces – similar to blinkers – could bring about further improvement too.
So, with some of the big prices no longer available (notably on Any Second Now), if I was betting on the race today I would back Discorama, Mighty Thunder and Dingo Dollar, all at around 33-1 and all each way, with Sky Bet or other bookies offering seven or more places. Then I would hope at least one of them gets placed for a modest profit, while also dreaming of a big win too.
But for myself, and my regular followers, our money is already down and so no more bets on the race. Over the past seven months I have put up five horses each way at odds of 50-1, 50-1, 40-1, 33-1 and 20-1 – and I am pleased to say they are all due to run on Saturday, with the race starting at 5.15pm.
Elsewhere on today and tomorrow’s Aintree cards, there are some good bets.
The Randox Topham Chase today (4.05pm) is a wide open 30-runner handicap chase. Five Star Getaway could go well for the in-form Christian Williams yard and I expect a big show too from Dan Skelton’s Spiritofthegames.
Betting wise, I had intended to go in double handed with two horses that are tried and trusted over course and distance: Mac Tottie and SENIOR CITIZEN, who were first and second in the Betway Grand Sefton Chase here in November. But the odds on the former have halved over the last 24 hours, so I will put up just the latter as a bet.
Alan King’s Senior Citizen loves these Aintree spruce fences and was third in this race last year. He will relish the good ground, his trainer is in top form and he should be backed each way with Sky Bet at 11-1, with the firm offering no less than eight places.
Tomorrow I will be backing two horses in the opening handicap hurdle (1.45pm). The first, DANS LE VENT, has had a busy campaign but he is tough and can improve on his poor Festival run last month.
A Flat track and three miles are key to his chances tomorrow and trainer’s daughter Isabel Williams gets a good tune out of this gelding. Furthermore, the trainer himself has his string back on song after a quiet month or two. So back him each way at 12-1 with Betfred offering six places.
In the same race, however, I also like Ian Williams’ PARTY BUSINESS who had no luck in running when fifth in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle on the last day of the Festival. He was hampered twice early on by fallers and yet still stayed on well up the famous Cheltenham hill.
As with Dans Le Vent, I am confident that he can step up on that effort and 12-1 is appealing. Once again, back him each way, with bet365 paying five places, in the hope that he is even better over the longest trip that he has tackled to date.
So that’s three new bets for today and tomorrow. Good luck to one and all.
One for the Horse Tracker
Law Ella is a horse with a big future judged on her second in the 20-runner mares’ National Hunt Flat race in the last at Aintree yesterday. That was only Gavin Cromwell’s horse’s second trip to the racecourse after a winning debut at Down Royal less than a month ago. Yesterday she was beaten by a decent and more experienced Willie Mullins horse in Ashroe Diamond and there is lots of evidence to suggest Law Ella will make her mark over hurdles next season.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Senior Citizen at 11-1 in the Aintree 4.05pm race today, with Skybet, 1/5th odds, paying 8 places.
1 point each way Dans Le Vent at 12-1 in the Aintree 1.45pm race tomorrow, with Betfred 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Party Business at 12-1 in the Aintree 1.45pm race tomorrow, with bet365, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Discorama at 33-1 for the Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Hewick at 33-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaed – 2 points
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 2nd + 1 point.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 5th + 2.2 points
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. – 2 points.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB or the Grand Annual, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points
2 points win Amarillo Sky at 10-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual. Unplaced. -2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places. 1st + 60 points.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 20-1 NRNB for the Paddy Power Plate 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places. NR Stake returned.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 10-1 NRNB for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR. Stake returned.
1 point each way Royale Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Jersey Bean at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National 1/4 odds, 4 places. NR. - 2 points.
1 point each way Kitty’s Light at 14-1 for the Scottish Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2.5 points
1 point each way Innisfree Lad at 33-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. NR. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 16-1 for the Red Rum Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 20-1 for the Topham Chase ¼ odds, 4 places. NR. – 2 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total + 33.1 points.