Nothing appeals as a bet for this weekend, so I am going to revisit the market for my favourite race of the jumps season, the Coral Welsh Grand National on December 27.
I have already put up one horse: Highland Hunter at 14-1. He is now a top priced 8-1 and has every chance after his Sandown victory in the London National earlier this month.
But his “prep race” for the Welsh National almost went too well, in that by winning he picks up a 4 lbs penalty for Chepstow. He had a hard race at Sandown, too.
So I want to go into the race double handed. The two horses at the top of the market, Ask Me Early and Secret Reprieve, initially appeared to have rock-solid credentials. But the former took a crashing fall in training yesterday, and Harry Fry was quick to inform one and all that the horse’s participation is in doubt.
I am certain that Secret Reprieve is better than his current rating of 140. But even for a trainer as talented as Evan Williams, it is asking a lot of the horse to win this Welsh marathon for the second year running having not seen a racecourse for a year.
I think the value now lies with HOLD THAT TAUGHT each way, at 12-1 with several bookies. His trainer, Venetia Williams, loves to target this race and has won it twice.
Hold That Taught, a six-year-old gelding, has the quality, stamina and course form on soft ground that I look for in this race. He will need to jump better than he did when winning on his seasonal debut at Carlisle but I expect him to do just that. He also needs 14 rivals to come out of the race to make the “cut” but that seems likely. This race often cuts up at the five-day declaration stage.
Of those at longer odds, Ramses de Teillee could prove interesting at 20-1 each way if the rain arrives in time. He ran a shocker last year but go back two more years and he ran superbly to be second in the same race behind Elegant Escape as a six-year-old.
This weekend I will be keeping a watching brief on pretty much my favourite horse in training: Buzz. If he stays three miles, he should land the Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. The grey will relish the softer ground, but he is not a bet for me at short odds against some top rivals and with his stamina not 100 per cent guaranteed.
One for the horse tracker
Nickolson has been on my radar for some time. He is well thought of by his in-form trainer, Olly Murphy, but has often disappointed over the past two years. But there was an awful lot to like about his run at Taunton last week. He dropped to last place four fences out and looked beaten, before rallying strongly over the last half mile to finish second. Over a longer trip on softer ground, he can land an overdue success for his owner Tim Syder.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2021, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -16 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.