Back a veteran to land the big chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bet” 13
Nick Alexander has his string in cracking form and has already plundered some decent prizes in the North this season.
He landed a hat-trick at Ayr on Tuesday with three horses, all ridden by different jockeys. He can keep up the good work at Wetherby on Boxing Day in the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.
His veteran chaser, LAKE VIEW LAD, will be 12 years old on New Year’s Day, but he retains plenty of ability judged on his seasonal debut third place at Haydock early this month.
He’s overpriced with Paddy Power and Betfair at 12-1, paying four places.
It’s only a year ago that Alexander’s gelding, previously owned by the late Trevor Hemmings, took the scalp of Nicky Henderson‘s Santini in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree.
That put him up in the ratings to a career high of 162 but he has come down again now to a handy perch of 149. That gives him a real chance of winning this race in which he was third two years ago off a mark of 155.
There are plenty of talented rivals, headed by Sandy Thomson’s Empire Steel and Fergal O’Brien’s Silver Hallmark. But both are short enough in the betting and I’ll go for value instead with Lake View Lad.
Alexander scratched him from the Coral Welsh Grand National on Tuesday to switch him to Wetherby. That seems a good decision as Lake View Lad probably doesn’t stay a true marathon trip in deep ground.
But our two “max bets” for the Welsh Grand National remain firmly in contention. Both have roughly halved in odds since I tipped them. There is plenty of rain forecast for south Wales over the weekend, and that will enhance the chances of both Highland Hunter and Hold That Taught.
Meanwhile the “horse tracker" tips continue to show a huge profit on level stakes next time out. Evan Williams' Annsam won at 7-1 at Ascot at the weekend. That's four winners from only a handful of tracker horses, at odds of up to 16-1.
One for the horse tracker
Gary Moore’ Imphal caught the eye at Ascot on Saturday behind a Gordon Elliott plunge horse. Imphal, who was talented on the Flat, got brought to a standstill by fallers at the first hurdle. Rather than pull him up, Jamie Moore, the trainer’s son, gave him a patient ride and he gradually made progress over the last half mile. The winner, Ardhill, had flown but Impal took second despite stumbling after the last hurdle. He’s a winner in waiting, despite being raised 2 lbs to a mark of 113. Three-mile handicap hurdles on ground no worse than good to soft are perfect for him.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2021, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -16 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.