Take a York course specialist to land the big sprint handicap on day 1
Flat season 2022: bets 44 & 45
The thundery showers and heavy rain that were, at one point, widely forecast ahead of York’s famous Ebor meeting now look likely to miss the track.
For a while, the connections of soft-ground specialists must have thought their fortunes had finally turned after one of the driest summers on record. But that optimism now looks misplaced.
The more I bet ante post, the more I love horses that are not ground dependent, just in case the going changes shortly before the start of a big meeting.
One horse who seems to run equally well on ground varying from “soft” to “good to firm” is course specialist COPPER KNIGHT. He won the Sky Bet and Symphony Group Handicap last year off a rating of just 92.
The fact that he is now rated 101 suggests, at the age of eight, that he might be weighted out of things now as he tries to win the race for a second successive year.
However, as recently as October last year, Yorkshire handler Tim Easterby's admirable gelding dead-heated for first place in a competitive Doncaster handicap off a rating of 100 and this June he won a Chester sprint handicap off a mark of 97.
Last year's victory in the race was Copper Knight’s sixth at York, meaning he became the winning-most horse in the history of the famous racetrack.
The 25-1 offered by William Hill for Wednesday’s opening race at 1.50pm is simply too big. Admittedly the bookie is paying just four places now and many more places will be available on the day, but the 25-1 could have long gone by the off.
Finally, I can’t resist throwing a third “dart” at the board in the ultra-competitive Sky Bet Ebor Handicap on Saturday (August 20), having already put up two horses for the race.
Irish trained-horses have a good record in this race and Paddy Twomey’s Earl of Tyrone has been backed into favouritism to add to that trend. If the horse does land the big York handicap, it will be his fourth win in as many starts since April.
Earl of Tyrone has every chance but, at twice the price, and with the sponsors offering both Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) and five places, I much prefer to back Jessica Harrington’s EVER PRESENT. Make no mistake, this is a very good each way bet with the favourable terms offered by Sky Bet only.
If the rain really did come after all and ground went “soft” or “heavy” at York, Ever Present might not run – hence the value of the NRNB offer.
Judged on Ever Present’s win in a 23-horse handicap at Leopardstown in September last year, he thrives in a big field. Connections have been planning to run him in the Ebor ever since.
Ever Present does not have course form at York, which I like at the specialist track, but the 16-1 NRNB means I am prepared to take a chance that he adapts well to the track.
One for the horse tracker
Marco Botti’s Divine Magic bumped into an in-form and improving horse in Orbaan at the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot last Saturday. Divine Magic, however, pushed David O’Meara’s charge all the way to the line and is an improving and consistent performer over 7 furlongs. He will be winning again sooner rather than later, especially if stepped up to a mile.
Pending:
1 point each way Copper Knight at 25-1 for the Sky Bet and Symphony Group Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Cruyff Turn at 16-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Blue for You at 14-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 18-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each Euchen Glen at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places
1 point each way Ever Present at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, 1/5 odds, 5 places with Sky Bet, NRNB.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
2 points win Intellogent at 8-1 for the John Smith’s Cup. 3rd. – 2 points.
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 16-1 for the International Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 12-1 for the Coral Chesterfield Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hydroplane at 10-1 for the Coral Goodwood Handicap, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Montassib at 10-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ouzo at 16-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 4th + 2.2 points
1 point each way Acklam Express at 15/2 for the Qatar King George Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Inver Park at 16-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Summerghand at 20-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 11-1 for the Stewards Cup Sprint, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: - 27.34 points.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake