Part 2 of the Cheltenham preview after our incredible 50-1 winner earlier today
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bet 41"
Please forgive the lack of modesty, but… it’s not often that any tipping column lands a 50-1 winner.
Global Citizen delivered a monster performance for this newsletter, winning the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual this afternoon with something in hand. He was put up on February 27 at 50s NRNB and won earlier today at an SP (Starting Price) of 28-1.
Happy days as we now have a huge overall profit on the season after a slightly sluggish start.
Anyway two down, two to go. We are halfway through the greatest jumps meeting in the world. Our battle with the old enemy, the bookies, could hardly be going any better.
Constitution Hill’s hugely impressive win in the very first race of the Festival, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdles, hit a splendid tone for the four days for a couple of reasons.
It signalled that British trainers were determined to fight back after their mauling from Irish handlers last year and, in terms of quality performance and fast times, his run also set the bar hugely high.
The torrential rain earlier today ruined the chances of dozens of horses running on Day 2. Shiskin, for example, who pulled up in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, handles “soft” ground fine but couldn’t go a yard in a bog.
Anyway. Time to preview days 3 and 4. Regarding tomorrow’s fare, I start with my nap – that’s my best bet.
I am sweeter than ever on the chances of THE GLANCING QUEEN in the Craft Irish Whiskey Co Plate Chase (4.10pm), with Alan King wisely deciding on the handicap option for his mare rather than the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase on Friday. The fine form of King’s string is a bonus too, as is today’s rain.
The Glancing Queen, a consistent eight-year-old is a Festival veteran having run at the latest three but this is her best chance of winning, tackling handicap company for the first time. I put her up at each way at 20-1 NRNB five places, and she is nearer a quarter of those odds now after plenty of market support over the past fortnight.
The Kim Muir Chase (5.30pm) is a trappy contest. I was poised to put up Mister Fogpatches as a “maximum bet” in this race. But that was before the excess of the wet stuff. As he is a much better horse on good ground, I will pass on tipping him.
I have slightly gone off the chances of my Ryanair Chase (2.50pm) tip FANION D’ESTRUVAL after his last moderate run but I am stuck with him 25-1 each way NRNB.
The truth is that the odds-on favourite Allaho will win easily if he repeats his performance in this race a year ago. But with only nine runners, my tip could creep into a place with Venetia Williams’ horses in good form.
The highlight of Day 3 tomorrow (Thursday) is the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30pm) but that race is too open for me. There are lots of inconsistent horses at the top of the market.
I did strongly fancy a horse for the Stayers’ Hurdle, putting up Buzz at 20-1 for the race all of four months ago. He was trimmed to 7-1 after winning at Ascot but then he broke his pelvis on the gallops. Without NRNB at that stage, that wager is down the pan but the horse is making a good recovery.
The Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30pm) has cut up and should prove a match between Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger. My marginal preference is for the former but there is no way I am getting involved, betting wise, at these cramped odds.
In the Pertemps Network Final Hurdle (2.10pm), I fancy the chance of Alaphilippe to beat the Irish battalions on only his second run this season. His run in the qualifier for this race was eyecatching and he’s certainly better than his current official rating of 138.
But the good prices have long gone. Once again, there will be plenty of Irish “plot horses” to contend with so I will pass on putting him up as a bet at a single figure prices in a really tough race.
The big race on Day 4 (Friday) is, of course, the Boodles’ Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30pm). I put up ROYAL PAGAILLE at 20-1 NRNB in the hope of heavy rain. Yesterday’s downpour will have helped his cause no end but the ground may well dry up before the off. He’s a great each way bet even now, with some bookies paying five places.
I will leave the rest of the card alone with the exception of adding one more horse to the “maximum bet” portfolio for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (2.50pm). STAG HORN is an accomplished performer on the Flat and is a rare jump horse for his Lambourn handler Archie Watson.
The five-year old is unbeaten in two runs over hurdles and his trainer knows how to prepare for a big race. Take the 14-1 each way with Ladbrokes or Coral as they are paying five places.
That’s over and out from me, other than to wish you a good luck punting over the next two days. I hope followers of the newsletter are as happy as I am right now.
P.S. Don’t forget we hopefully have a bet, Jersey Bean, in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on Saturday, too. But the heavy rain will not have helped his cause so don’t get your hopes too high.
One for the horse tracker
The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle yesterday was a high quality affair and will throw up plenty of future winners. But, after watching a replay of the race, I think the one for the future is Mrs Milner. Running over a distance short of her best, she ran a cracker, despite being hampered by the mayhem at the second last. Irish trainer Paul Nolan is a big race veteran. When stepped up to three miles again over hurdles, she will win a big one, either later this season or next season.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 20-1 NRNB for the Paddy Power Plate 1/5 odds, 5 places
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 10-1 NRNB for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Stag Horn at 14-1 for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Jersey Bean at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaed – 2 points
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 2nd + 1 point.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 5th + 2.2 points
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. – 2 points.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB or the Grand Annual, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points
2 points win Amarillo Sky at 10-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual. Unplaced. -2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places. 1st + 60 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total + 46.6 points.