MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN to land the Paddy Power Gold Cup with conditions in his favour
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bet” 4
The five-day declarations are out for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday. Both Dan Skelton and his mentor Paul Nicholls look as if they have strong candidates in Protektorat and Lalor respectively. But at cramped odds, neither appeals much from a betting point of view, even though Lalor could be revitalised by a switch of stables.
In last week’s blog, I put up last year’s winner Coole Cody as a “maximum bet” each way at 20-1 and he should handle the faster terrain this year. It was “soft” 12 months ago but could easily be “good” ground on Saturday, with little rain forecast and limited watering.
I had expected to go in double-handed with Nick Williams’ potential improver Galahad Quest. I have long thought he would be aimed at a decent handicap chase off his mark of 135. Furthermore, he ran the perfect prep race on his seasonal debut at Wetherby last month. Not knocked about by his jockey David Noonan, he finished third and gave the impression he would be winning soon. He has been well supported in the betting, however, down to a top-priced 14-1 and he may be better suited by softer ground. He could well win but he is not the stand-out value that I was hoping for.
On reflection, I have switched my support to MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN. Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old gelding now looks certain to get his favoured fast ground, which is unusual for this meeting in mid-November. He also has good winning course and distance form from April. He may have been overlooked in the market, especially as his jumping seems to get better and better. Back him each way at 20-1 with one of a handful of bookmakers.
Sue Smith’s charge Midnight Shadow is another with strong course and distance form and also won’t mind the ground. But he is fairly exposed and, even in a contest this competitive, two “maximum bets” is enough.
One for the horse tracker
Hold That Taught looks to be a typical Venetia Williams chaser: he stays all day, loves soft ground and has been put over the larger obstacles early in his career (aged just six). He was not foot-perfect on his seasonal debut at Carlisle, but he still won with something in hand. That was his first run since February. Marathon trips on very soft ground look likely to be his forte. With good form at Chepstow already, he could target the Welsh National this Christmas or possibly wait until December 2022. Whatever his chosen future assignments, I would be astonished if he didn’t have a decent career as a chaser, provided he stays injury-free and learns to cut out his novicey mistakes.
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Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
My record over the past six years
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.