The Grand Sefton Handicap Chase, one of five races staged over Aintree’s famous Grand National fences each season, has a new date – the first Saturday in November. The idea is to bolster the November meeting rather than have the 2 miles 5 furlongs contest run at the December meeting, which also features the Becher Chase over the National fences.
Initially, with all five of these races, I look for horses with past form over the unique obstacles. I was drawn to Alan King’s Senior Citizen, who came third in the Randox Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree in April. But he is favourite for the Grand Sefton and I am determined not to back ground-dependent horses ante post this season. He has a strong preference for fast going, and might not run if it comes up very soft.
Hogan’s Height was next under the microscope. He routed a big field to win this race last season, by no less than 16 lengths. He has run poorly since then, however, including when tailed off in the National itself in April. If he returns to his best form, he will be a strong contender, but that’s a big “if”.
As usual, I have gone for value in the form of Henry de Bromhead’s SPYGLASS HILL who, according to his likeable and talented trainer, is being aimed at the race. I loved the way this eight-year-old gelding beat some decent rivals at Gowran Park in February last year. He jumps well despite lacking Aintree experience. With plenty of rain forecast in the Liverpool area over the next 11 days, he could well get his preferred terrain of soft or heavy. There are few better target trainers than de Bromhead, too.
The horse is not particularly well handicapped in this country off a mark of 146 (6 lbs higher than on the other side of the Irish Sea), but Irish trainers will be winning plenty of big handicaps on British soil this season. This could be one of them. Spyglass Hill looks to be favoured too by the drop in trip from his first two runs this season.
If Grand National winning jockey Rachael Blackmore comes over for the ride, I would be surprised if he goes off at 20-1. Take that price each way with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor. There will be more places available with some bookies come November 6 but, as I say, I doubt that 20-1 will be available on race day.
One for the horse tracker
I intended to stay loyal to Annual Invictus this season even before his impressive win at Cheltenham last Friday in a competitive five-horse novice handicap. I love horses that win or run well even when they don’t have their ideal conditions. Chris Gordon’s six-year-old gelding would have preferred a softer surface than he encountered at the Cotswold track. Yet he jumped superbly and showed real resolve when challenged entering the straight. Raised just 4 lbs for his weekend win to a rating of 140, this horse can remain competitive. Those behind him, notably Torn and Frayed, are also worth bearing in mind for similar handicaps. Torn and Frayed might well benefit from a step up in trip.
Max bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
My record over the past six years
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.