The Grand National is just under six months away. At first glance, it may seem madness trying to pick the winner of the race now. It is hard enough choosing the winner on the day.
I am convinced, however, that that odds of 20-1 are more than fair for one of the runners. To start with, this nine-year-old gelding is certain to have only one basic aim for the entire season and that will be the world’s most famous race on April 9 2022.
Furthermore, this horse is not ground dependent: he will not mind any going which is certain to be something between “heavy” and “good to soft” (the course always waters, if necessary, to ensure the ground is on the soft side of good).
But the crucial factor for fancying ANY SECOND NOW so much for the National is his run in the race earlier this year. He was badly hampered by a faller, Double Shuffle, at the 12th fence. In fact, his jockey, Mark Walsh, must have been sorely tempted to pull his mount up on the spot after being stopped in his tracks and losing around a dozen lengths (watch a replay of the race to see exactly what happened).
Instead Walsh picked up the horse, bided his time and came into the straight with a chance of winning. Beaten into third place on the line, he was 19 lengths clear of the fourth home. With a clear passage, he would surely have won.
Raised by the handicapper 5lbs to a rating of 157 for his National run, Any Second Now has proved he loves the unique Aintree course and distance and can come back to run another huge race next year. He is a talented chaser able to win over trips as short as two miles as well as marathon slogs with the mud flying. He is a past Cheltenham Festival winner too, having won the Kim Muir Chase in 2019.
Any Second Now is a sound horse who, to the best of my knowledge, has never had a major injury. Come April, he will still only be ten years old – a perfect age for the race. If he jumps around again and gets a clear run, he could well land the race. The fact that Ted Walsh has already trained a National winner (Papillon in 2000 when ridden by the trainer’s son, Ruby) is a big plus too.
Take the 20-1 each way with bet365, with a quarter of the odds paying five places (Betfred is offering the same odds but only a fifth of the odds for five places). And don’t be worried if his prep races prior to April are distinctly uninspiring. There’s only one day this season that counts.
One for the horse tracker
Isabel Williams, who is good value for her 5lbs claim, gets a good tune out of Dans Le Vent. The eight-year-old gelding, trained by her father Evan, ran some good races at the big spring festivals last season and made an encouraging seasonal debut at Ffos Las on Saturday in the Potter Group Welsh Champion Hurdle. The rider plotted a wide route over a trip short of the horse’s best distance. The gelding has been raised just 1lb in the ratings to a mark of 135 for his weekend run. When stepped up in trip and on anything from “good” to “soft” ground, Dans Le Vent can land a decent handicap hurdle later in the season.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National at 20-1 with bet365, /14 odds, 5 places.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.