Glorious Goodwood preview: four big-price bets (plus one for Ascot on Saturday)
Flat season 2022: bets 32, 33, 34, 35 & 36
Glorious Goodwood gets underway on Tuesday and as someone who loves quality racing, flat or jumps, it will be an occasion to savour.
But this meeting can be infuriating for punters, because the number of hard luck stories, of horses that should have won but didn’t, will almost certainly run to double figures over the five days.
For example, earlier today I glanced at the Racing Post’s report for last year’s Golden Mile. I saw plenty of write-ups for beaten horses that read “going easily but not clear run”, or similar words.
In short, because of the course’s undulations, tight turns and draw bias, the best horse in the race often does not win. But, with those words of caution ringing in your ears, I still think there are some good bets to be had.
The trainer/jockey combination of William Haggas and Tom Marquand should always be respected when they target big races. I fancy MONTASSIB to land this year’s Coral Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood tomorrow week – July 29 – given luck in running, of course.
As always, this is a highly competitive race and wealthy owners Godolphin have a particularly strong hand with the two market leaders, Noble Dynasty and Shining Blue. The former is well handicapped and will take all the beating if lining up.
But Montassib was my horse tracker nomination in last week’s newsletter, after he finished a running-on 4th in the Bunbury Cup over 7 furlongs at Newmarket on July 9. This lightly raced four-year-old gelding will be even better over a mile. I love the fact that he has winning form at Goodwood’s specialist track and that he is not ground dependent. The win earlier this season came on “soft” ground, while his two most recent big runs have come on much faster going.
Take the generally available 10-1 each way. I would go with either Paddy Power or Betfair fixed odds, offering a fifth odds for five places.
On the same day, I am backing a horse that always seems to find a way to lose, even when he doesn’t have the added problems of racing at Goodwood.
CARADOC has repeatedly frustrated his supporters, not least his trainer Ed Walker, because he is short of big race wins despite not being short on ability.
I am going to give him one last chance in the Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap at Goodwood on Tuesday (1.50pm), a race in which he finished second last year despite being unsuited by the heavy ground.
Back Caradoc each way at 12-1 with any number of bookmakers paying quarter of the odds, four places.
Looking further ahead, to the Coral Stewards Cup on Saturday week (July 30), I am going to put up two horses for the race with very different profiles.
INVER PARK is a young improver who has won his last three races, including the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He seems equally at home over 6 or 7 furlongs. Although he handles fast ground, his trainer thinks he could be even better with some cut.
Raised only 4 lbs in the ratings for his fairly cosy Royal Ascot win, he can run a huge race on this easier sprint track despite being down in distance. Back George Boughey’s talented charge each way at 16-1 with Ladbrokes or Coral, paying a quarter of the odds, four places.
But I want to go in to the race double handed, with a veteran sprinter who loves Goodwood. SUMMERGHAND was 4th in the race in 2019 and won it in 2020. He was disappointing in the contest last year, but his recent form is encouraging and he has dropped from a peak rating of 113 to a workable mark of 100.
Back David O’Meara’s eight-year-old gelding each way at 20-1, a fifth of the odds for five places, with Paddy Power, Betfair fixed odds or Betfred.
We already have two horses in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes at Ascot on Saturday (3pm) and I still fancy both Air to Air and Tactical to run big races. I put up the former at 20-1 more than three weeks ago - he is now around 8-1 - and connections clearly rate his chances highly, while the latter would be a welcome winner for his owner, The Queen.
But the form of this month’s Bunbury Cup at Newmarket also looks strong and both the winner, Bless Him, and the runner-up, ROPEY GUEST, remain well handicapped. I was tempted to put up both, with many places on offer but since Bless Him’s hold-up style always requires a bit of luck, I will go only for Ropey Guest as a bet.
Both have strong course form at Ascot but Ropey Guest is the bigger price and is again reunited with Callum Hutchinson, an excellent 5 lbs claimer, this weekend. Take the 16-1 each way with Betfred, paying six places.
So that’s no less than five tips in this week’s newsletter. There will be plenty more tips for Glorious Goodwood next week.
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One for the horse tracker
Alfred Boucher ran his second big race in as many months at Chester on Saturday, failing by less than a length to beat his stablemate Haliphon. Ian Williams’s gelding is six years old now but he seems better than ever. He can pick up a decent handicap at up to two miles, provided he doesn’t bump into a rival of the calibre of either of the last two horses to beat him at the tight Cheshire track. His astute trainer loves to put up talented apprentices and this may be the key to getting Alfred Boucher the win he deserves. He is the sort of horse, too, that Williams likes to aim at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting.
Pending:
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the International Stakes.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the International Stakes.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 16-1 for the International Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Caradoc at 12-1 for the Coral Chesterfield Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Montassib at 10-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Inver Park at 16-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Summerghand at 20-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 18-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
2 points win Intellogent at 8-1 for the John Smith’s Cup. 3rd. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: - 9.54 points.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).