Four big priced bets for the last two days of Glorious Goodwood
Flat season 2022: bet 36, 37, 38 and 39
The draw for tomorrow’s Coral Golden Mile (3pm) is important because it is a significant advantage to have a low berth in this ultra-competitive race, usually run at a frantic pace.
My first tip for the race in last week’s newsletter was Montassib, who has to come out of stall 16. This is far from ideal in this 20-runner contest, so I’m going to have a second bet in the race.
I was torn between Rebel Territory and OUZO, whose first and second in a Sandown handicap in May is rock solid form. Both horses pulled more than five lengths clear of the third horse, Lyndon B, who franked the form in spades when winning at Glorious Goodwood yesterday.
Both horses have single figure draws tomorrow but, on the grounds of price, I am going to back only Ouzo even though Rebel Territory has been kept fresh for this since his Sandown win. Ouzo is also more at home on the likely good to firm ground, whereas Rebel Territory would definitely prefer “soft” in the going description.
Back Ouzo, who is ridden by talented apprentice Saffie Osborne claiming 3 lbs, each way at 16-1 with bet365, six places.
Regular readers will know that I love staying handicaps. The first race on the card tomorrow (1.50pm) is one of the longest races in the flat racing calendar, over two miles 4 1/2 furlongs.
Trainer Ian Williams has won this race twice in the past decade and his horse HYDROPLANE is overpriced at a general 10-1. But back him with one of the several bookies offering 4 places rather than three.
I had planned to go into the race double-handed with Gary Moore’s Make My Day, who was unlucky in running at Royal Ascot last time out when down the field. But his odds have halved over the past 72 hours and he is no longer value.
My final bet tomorrow is ACKLAM EXPRESS, who was third at the huge price of 200-1 in the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. The bookies seem to have dismissed that as a fluke even though the four-year-old gelding is the highest rated horse in the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes (3.35pm).
But don’t forget that this horse also holds the two-year-old course record at Goodwood and I think he has a massive chance of winning tomorrow for the North Yorkshire yard of Nigel Tinkler. Take the 7-1 each way, four places, with Betfred only.
Turning to Saturday, I am very happy with the two horses that I put up eight days ago for the Coral Stewards’ Cup. Both Inver Park and Summerghand have been heavily backed over the past week.
In the Coral Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (Stewards’ Cup consolation race, 1.40pm), the most likely winner is Lethal Levi, who is on a hat-trick and ahead of the handicapper. But he is a short-priced favourite too.
Instead, I have backed MOKAATIL, a six-year-old gelding who loves charging downhill at speed at both Goodwood and Epsom.
Ian Williams’ horse won the Epsom Dash last year and was fourth in the same race this season. With talented claimer Harry Davies in the saddle, he is a fair each way bet at 11-1 with William Hill, paying four places.
I am aware that we need a winner after too many big-priced seconds this season (notably at odds of 33-1 and 25-1) so here’s hoping for a change of fortune over the next two days.
And, as always, if you are enjoying this regular newsletter, please recommend it to a friend
One for the horse tracker
Titan Rock ran a cracker in the final race at Goodwood yesterday, the World Pool Handicap over 7 furlongs. John Quinn’s four-year-old gelding had a “car park draw” in berth 19 of 20 and therefore had to travel on the outside of the field for most of the way. Despite all these disadvantages, he ran on well under Jason Hart to finish 5th at 16-1. Compensation awaits over this trip or, perhaps more likely, over a mile. His current mark of 91 is unlikely to be unchanged despite this top run, given he was beaten nearly five lengths by the winner. A trip to York next month could well be on the cards.
Pending:
1 point each way Hydroplane at 10-1 for the Coral Goodwood Handicap, 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Montassib at 10-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Ouzo at 16-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Acklam Express at 7-1 for the Qatar King George Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Inver Park at 16-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Summerghand at 20-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 11-1 for the Stewards Cup Sprint, 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 18-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise in Chester Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
2 points win Intellogent at 8-1 for the John Smith’s Cup. 3rd. – 2 points.
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 16-1 for the International Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 12-1 for the Coral Chesterfield Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: - 17.54 points.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).