Farewell to the Flat and a 25-1 shot as the first bet for the new jumps season
Jumps season 2022-3: bet 1
Well, that’s effectively farewell to another Flat season and, I am delighted to say, yet another profitable one for this newsletter.
I didn’t manage the huge profits (almost 80 points) of the last jumps season, with an overall profit of just over 9 points for the 2022 Flat season. But a profit is a profit and that means 13 winning seasons out of the last 14 from all recommended bets for my loyal followers.
The highlight of the Flat season was undoubtedly Island Brave retaining the Old Borough Cup at Haydock on September 3. I put him up at 33-1 five days before the race and he won comfortably at odds of just 15/2 on the day.
We had a Royal Ascot winner too – Get Shirty at 14-1 – and the winner of the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York – Blue for You, also at 14-1. And yes, of course, plenty of losers as well but that’s inevitable, mainly betting antepost at big prices.
The most important lesson for readers to learn from the season? That’s easy. Open an account with every major bookmaker so you can always get the best price available on any given horse in any given race. It will often make the difference between a winning and losing season.
As for me, and despite the name of this newsletter being “The Antepostman”, I have learnt that in big-field handicaps, it is often worth waiting until after the 48-hour declarations before placing a bet.
This is because bookmakers are increasingly miserly with their antepost odds, but some (notably Sky Bet) are increasingly generous with the number of places on offer on the day of the race in order to attract new custom. Seven places, occasionally eight, are regularly on offer for each way punters in big-field handicaps.
Take this year’s Sky Bet Ebor Handicap as an example. In this red-hot competitive handicap at York, I put up three horses antepost and they all ran pretty well finishing fifth, six and seventh respectively.
However, I put them all up at each way ante post, four places, so all three bets were down the pan. If I had put them up after the 48-hour decs, backing them all each way with the seven places available, all three each way wagers would have been winning ones at odds of 16-1, 16-1 and 12-1 respectively.
A lesson learnt. To put up a horse ante post, when the gambler risks losing everything if the horse is a non-runner, I will need to be pretty confident of beating the likely Starting Price by several points.
With that advice ringing in my own ears, it is time to place our first bet of the new jumps’ season – and an antepost wager too!
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is just the sort of chaser that I love following: an old warrior who comes back for more year in and year out. He’s very consistent too, which means the handicapper doesn’t give him many breaks.
As a result, Dan Skelton’s ten-year-old gelding has not won for all of four years and has only won 4 of his 33 races under rules during his career. But last season he continued to run big races in defeat including over the Grand National fences and at the Cheltenham Festival.
A fast-run two and a half mile race or slightly longer is perfect for him and so I am putting him up each way at 25-1 with bet365 only to run a big race in the Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday November 5.
He took well to the National fences last season in the Randox Topham Chase when he went for the brave man’s route down the inside, where the fences are bigger but you travel a shorter distance. He was fifth then behind Mac Tottie but will be much better off at the weights with that and other rivals early next month.
Spiritofthegames is trainer Dan Skelton’s only entry in the race, which strongly suggests this contest is his target, and he had a nice prep run this weekend when second at Fakenham. He is not ground dependent and can run well on any terrain from “good” to “soft”.
There are dangers aplenty and he may be vulnerable to a young improver but he will do for me at the price.
One for the horse tracker
There was plenty to like about Unanswered Prayers seasonal debut at Chepstow on Saturday for in-form trainer Chris Gordon. This six-year-old gelding was fifth in a handicap hurdle after being squeezed out approaching the home turn. The plan is now to go novice chasing with him, and his trainer reports that the horse jumps fences well at home. I expect Unanswered Prayers to win a novice handicap chase before Christmas so put him in your tracker now.
As always, if you are enjoying these newsletters, please recommend them to a friend. If you want to drop me a line, my email address is: antepostman1@gmail.com
Pending:
1 point each way Spiritofthegames at 25-1 for the Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2022-3 jumps season running total: no settled bets as yet.
2022 Flat season running total: + 9.01 points
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of just over 469 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).