Exclusive Cheltenham preview, one more Festival bet and a tip for the Midlands Grand National
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 39 & 40
The famous Cheltenham roar – the huge shout that the crowd makes as the tapes go up for the first race of the Festival – is only hours away.
For fans of jump racing, this is as good as it gets. Now is the time for the very best horses from Britain and Ireland to do battle on the undulating Cotswold racetrack set below picturesque Cleeve Hill.
For gamblers, notably students of form, the four days of the Festival will determine whether those nights burning the midnight oil, to study thousands of race results and to view hundreds of recordings of past races, have paid off.
For followers of these tips, the four days starting on Tuesday are also likely to determine whether we have a profitable season, or… otherwise. This is because so many of my suggested long-term bets will run between now and Friday evening.
I am pleased to report that this newsletter is in good form as the Festival approaches: its most recent tip, Cormier, scooted home in the Morebattle Hurdle after being put up at 14-1 and we go into the meeting with some promising antepost bets.
Taking a break from the usual format of the newsletter, I will today look at all the first two days of the meeting and summarise where we are with our long-range bets and look at some of the other races that I have not yet addressed.
Breaking from habit I will also put out a second newsletter late on Tuesday, looking at the second two days of the Festival, plus some of the races that I have not addressed.
The first day of Cheltenham is my favourite day of the week, and usually my most profitable. The highlight of Day 1 (Tuesday) is the Unibet Champion Hurdle (3.30pm). The unbeaten mare Honeysuckle is the most likely winner but I remain convinced that EPATANTE, who won the race in 2020, is the best each way value against the odds-on favourite. She is certainly in better form than she was a year ago when she finished third in the race after a troubled season.
I put her up at 10-1 Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) and she has, in fact, drifted a bit with some bookies because of the indifferent form of Nicky Henderson’s yard over the past fortnight.
***
The first race on the card, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30pm), could be a cracker but, as with the last race (5.30pm), I am adopting a watching brief with the bookies giving little away in terms of value.
The Sporting Life Arkle Chase (2.10pm) is an intriguing contest. Trainer Alan King’s Edwardstone is a legitimate favourite after winning his last four starts. But a couple of weeks ago, I preferred to go in search of value putting up MAGIC DAZE, who can take advantage of her 7 lbs mares’ allowance against colts.
I suggested backing her each way at 16-1 NRNB but stable jockey Rachael Blackmore’s decision to ride trainer Henry de Bromhead’s other runner in the race has slightly tempered my enthusiasm.
My nap – that’s the best bet – of Day 1 and indeed the whole week is FULL BACK who goes in the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50pm). I put him up each way at 20-1 NRNB five places on the back of two rock solid runs this year and he has winning course and distance form. He’s on a lovely weight too of just 10 stone 2 lbs.
His trainer Gary Moore’s yard is in sparkling form. Provided the horse jumps well, I would be both disappointed and surprised if he did not have a say in the finish. The 20-1 has long gone, but for anyone who has missed the boat there is some 16-1 out there with more places. That is still a really tasty each-way price.
The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (4.10pm) is dominated by Irish-trained runners. I was tempted to put up Burning Victory, a former Festival winner, mainly on the back of her superb run behind Buzz on the Flat in the Cesarewitch Handicap. But her jumping is not always pretty and the opposition is tough, so I will resist that temptation at current odds.
The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50pm) is ultra-competitive. Connections of Gaelic Warrior think he is thrown in off his lowly rating of 129 and the favourite could win by ten lengths if they are right.
But I am happy to stick with my two tips already put up in the race: SAINT SEGAL each way at 12-1 and TOO FRIENDLY, each way at 16-1. Both have been kept fresh for the race and are not without a chance. Due to the weight of money for the favourite, there are better prices out there now too, with extra places.
The highlight of Day 2 (Wednesday) is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30pm). I see no obvious horse with which to take on the two favourites, Shishkin and Energumene, but they both had hard races in their Ascot duel last time and that could take a toll.
So for me the Champion Chase is a race to watch and enjoy. Races 1 (1.30 pm) and 7 (5.30pm) are also not for me as betting propositions.
The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2.10pm) is a fascinating affair. I have a real soft spot for trainer Venetia Williams’ horse, L’Homme Presse. However, we have missed the attractive prices on this one (he had been more likely to run in the Turners Novices’ Chase). So now I simply hope to cheer him to victory, not put him up as a bet.
Next is the Coral Handicap Hurdle (2.50pm) and my nap of Day 2 is GOWEL ROAD in this race. I have no doubt that he is an improving hurdler and he will relish the step up in trip from his last run. I recently put him up at 16-1 NRNB five places and he is now a top priced 12-1 so he has attracted some money in the past week.
Once again, if you are not yet “on”, back him each way but wait until tomorrow night (Monday) after the 48-hour declarations when there may be slightly longer prices and more places on offer.
Most punters don’t like The Glenfarclas Chase (4.10pm), the cross-country. But I have a good record in the race and love its quirks. Prepare to reach for your handkerchief if Tiger Rolls wins at the Festival for the sixth time and then retires in a blaze of glory.
Trainer Gordon Elliott’s dual Grand National victor is the most likely winner but I am happy with my tip, SHADY OPERATOR, put up each way at 14-1 and now a top priced 9-1. Edna Bolger is a master trainer of cross country horses and this gelding has a strong each way chance.
In the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Chase (4.50pm), I am going to suggest a new “maximum bet” for followers. I have already put up ELIXIR DE NUTZ each way at 20-1 NRNB for the race and he still has a decent shout.
But it’s now clear to me that the Colin Tizzard yard much prefers its other runner, the novice AMARILLO SKY, so I am going to be bold and put him up today as a 2 points win bet at 10-1 (Paddy Power and Betfair). If he really is some way ahead of his talented stablemate, then Amarillo Sky will be hard to beat.
GLOBAL CITIZEN has also been suggested each way at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual but he is surely much more likely to take up his other declaration on Friday in the County Hurdle, where he is a 40-1 chance.
So, in short, there is all to play for. I have suggested 16 bets for the Festival over the four days, with two horses proposed for two alternative races NRNB (and they will only run once). Hopefully, a winner, or even two, will result in a profitable week for one and all. But the main thing is to make sure your betting is fun.
***
All good things, including the Festival, eventually come to an end but all is not lost. Next Saturday at 3.35pm is the Boulton Group Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and the race has a lot of horses at the top of the market who are unlikely to get their preferred soft or heavy ground.
In contrast, Oliver Sherwood’s consistent gelding JERSEY BEAN much prefers better ground and it looks likely he will get it with a dry end to the week forecast. He’s a good jumper and a tough stayer who appears to have been kept fresh for this race after winning at Haydock in November.
Take the 14-1 each way, available with most bookmakers, in the hope of ending the week on a high. It’s always risky putting up an antepost bet the day before the five-day declarations in case the horse is not declared the next day (ie tomorrow) and the stake is lost. But I hope and expect him to make the line-up at the weekend as the race is perfect for him.
One for the horse tracker
Harry Fry’s Dubrovnik Harry is six years old but did not see a race track for the first time until December. Since then he has run another three times and his last race on Saturday was, once again, full of promise and probably his best to date. He finished third in a decent novices’ hurdle on his handicap debut at Sandown this weekend and can win for the second time when stepped up in trip. His mark of 125 looks fair given that he is an improving gelding with his best days ahead of him.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB or the Grand Annual, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
2 points win Amarillo Sky at 10-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 20-1 NRNB for the Paddy Power Plate 1/5 odds, 5 places
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 10-1 NRNB for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Jersey Bean at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total – 1.6 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.