BUZZ gives off the right noises to land the Stayers’ Hurdle next March
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bet" 5
Having an abundance of ante post bets for the Cheltenham Festival this side of Christmas can be a fast route to the poorhouse. Injuries, loss of form and a change of big-race targets can all result in many losing wagers. Having said that, I can’t resist backing a horse I have followed for his whole career.
BUZZ first caught my eye all of five years ago when first running on the flat for charismatic trainer Hughie Morrison. Yes, I have a soft spot for a grey but, more importantly, I like a horse that shows courage under pressure. “When the going gets tough, the tough get going” can apply to thoroughbreds as well as people.
Buzz won four times on the flat while in Morrison’s care before being moved to Nicky Henderson’s yard. Since then he has won three of his eight starts over hurdles. But his finest hour came last month, when he won the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket having been switched back to the flat to take advantage of his lenient handicap rating. Henderson had indicated he was unlikely to run on good ground, but he not only ran on that terrain, he put a 32-runner field to the sword. Buzz showed his battling qualities once again to wear down the leader, Burning Victory, close home, with the pair finishing more than eight lengths clear of the rest of the field.
There is no doubt that Buzz is a better horse on soft ground so he should enjoy a fruitful season now that he switches back to hurdles. His long-term aim is the Stayers’ Hurdle, on the Thursday of the the Festival, so take the 20-1 each way with bet365 now for that contest in four months’ time. Then hope he stays fit and maintains his good form.
He may make his seasonal debut over hurdles at Ascot on Saturday. I hope he wins. The horse’s owners donate Buzz’s prize money to the Royal Marsden Cancer Charity which is a good reason for cheering on the gallant grey every time he runs. But he will not be carrying my money. The ground is again likely to be faster than he likes it and the trip is most certainly shorter than ideal over hurdles.
PS It’s poor form for tipsters to go on about their losing tips but… Coole Cody (put up at 20-1 a few weeks back) would surely have done my readers a big favour had he not crumpled after jumping the second last while in the lead in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday. It was slightly galling after Spyglass Hill – another I’d put up – unseated his rider while leading the Grand Sefton seven days earlier.
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One for the horse tracker
Dostal Phil made up a huge amount of ground late on in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday. Jumping three out, he looked more likely to be pulled up than placed. But he rallied strongly in the home straight to finish fourth, beaten by less than four lengths. Those who can should watch a replay of the race to see what I mean. The good ground would have been much livelier than he prefers. Having been put up just 1lb by the handicapper for that run, he can win a big handicap chase off his new mark of 143 when encountering much more cut in the ground.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers Hurdle with bet365, 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total - 6 points.
My record over the past six years
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.