Be brave and back two horses for the Grand National at huge prices
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 16 & 17
Scottish trainer Sandy Thomson is a master of rejuvenating horses from big stables which have lost their appetite for racing.
He worked wonders, for example, with jaded chasers Harry the Viking, from the Paul Nicholls yard, and Willie Mullins’ Yorkhill.
More recently, he has rekindled the enthusiasm of DINGO DOLLAR, formerly trained by Alan King. The horse was second in last year’s Coral Scottish Grand National and has run well twice this season too, without getting his head in front.
But Thomson has made no secret that the horse’s main target for the season is the Aintree Grand National in April.
The ten-year-old gelding is virtually certain to make the “cut” for the race off a rating of 148. He stays well, jumps accurately and can handle most ground, other than perhaps heavy. At 50-1 with several bookmakers, he is outstanding each-way value in the race, for which I have already put up Any Second Now.
The big Irish stables are certain to be well represented and they dominated last year’s race. But their horses will not be so generously handicapped this year and so I am happy to put up another British horse at a huge price.
GOOD BOY BOBBY, from the in-form yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies, is as game and consistent as they come. He is certain to go up in the ratings today for winning the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day from a mark of 146.
So he, too, will make the “cut” for the Aintree marathon and this sound jumper ticks plenty of boxes for the race now that his trainer has announced that the National is his end-of-season target. He is not guaranteed to stay the trip, but at odds of 40-1 with William Hill I am happy to take a chance on his stamina and back him each way.
It’s not madness to back horses for the National this far in advance. At this time last year, I had two ante post bets in the Grand National at 33-1 and 25-1. Both horses made the frame: Any Second Now was third and Burrows Saint was fourth.
Of course, these horses need to stay sound for another three months but that’s built into their prices so be brave and back them now. The 40-1 for Good Boy Bobby is unlikely to last long.
One for the horse tracker
Alan King has made no secret that Deyrann de Carjac has a strong preference for good ground. So it was a surprise to see him run as well as he did on Saturday, when he came fifth in the Grade 3 Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase on very soft ground. He was only beaten by just over 12 lengths by the winner, Vienna Court. King’s nine-year-old gelding can win a big handicap chase later in the season when he encounters his favoured good ground off an increasingly attractive handicap mark.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2021, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -15.5 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.