Back two horses from the same stable for their big Cheltenham Festival targets
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 23 and 24
This weekend Cheltenham stages its Trials Day, with punters searching for clues to which horses may be winning at the Festival in less than two months’ time. But there were plenty of valuable pointers at Haydock and Ascot last weekend.
Understandably, most of the talk in the racing world on Saturday centred on the breathtaking clash between Shishkin and Energumene in Ascot’s SBK Clarence House Chase. But it was the performance of two Venetia Williams’ inmates that interested me from a betting viewpoint.
As I mentioned last week, I love the non runner no bet (NRNB) concession offered by some bookmakers for the big Festival races. It is particularly useful when backing ground-dependent horses that are unlikely to line up if their preferred terrain is not on offer.
ROYAL PAGAILLE is most definitely ground-dependent and would need it soft or heavy to win the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. But if he does get his favoured conditions on the last day of the Festival, there will be few more tenacious battlers in the race.
There was much to admire about his performance at the weekend, when he retained his Peter Marsh title at Haydock by out-battling Sam Brown, giving him no less than 16 lbs.
Royal Pagaille, an eight-year-old gelding, should be forgiven his pulled up in last year’s Gold Cup. Not only was he still a novice, but he lost two shoes during the race and finished lame. This season he is far more the finished article, despite a small setback before Christmas.
Crucially, Venetia Williams is unlikely to run her horse on fast ground, which makes the 20-1 NRNB offered by bet365 for the Gold Cup a stand-out bet. Go in each way now. I don’t think that price NRNB will last, especially if one or two of the favourites drop out over the next six weeks.
Royal Pagaille is officially rated 166, just a pound lower the Gordon Elliott-trained Galvin, who is second favourite for the race at odds of no more than 5-1.
The form of Ascot’s bet365 Handicap Chase also looks solid. FANION D’ESTRUVAL ran an admirable race to be a close-second to an improving handicapper, Phoenix Way, who was in receipt of more than a stone.
Talented amateur Lucy Turner, who claims 7 lbs, almost stole the race from the second last fence before being reeled in by Harry Fry’s charge. Fanion d’Estruval is definitely capable of running a big race in the Ryanair Chase off his new rating of 162.
No rival is likely to beat an on-song Allaho but, as they saying goes, you should never be afraid of just one horse. The 25-1 NRNB offered by bet365 and Sky Bet is also worth taking each way.
Yes, Fanion d’Estruval was beaten into fifth by the huge margin of 54 lengths by Allaho in last year’s Ryanair, but that was a big ask for a six-year-old. Like his stablemate Royal Pagaille, he is a much more accomplished performer this season. His trainer’s horses could not be in better form.
Finally, it was very frustrating not to see Annsam declared this morning for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster on Saturday. I put up the horse at 16-1 last week before he halved in price, only to be ruled out of the race by connections, apparently because of the drying ground.
One for the horse tracker
Gowel Road is an improving young handicap hurdler and he did well to run the mud-loving Metier close in a handicap hurdle at Lingfield on Saturday. That race was on heavy ground and over two miles. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old gelding is even better on good ground and over a longer trip. In fact, he has winning form at Cheltenham over two miles five furlongs which would make the Coral Cup seem like his most probable Festival contest in March. I’d fancy him to make his mark in that race or another contest over a distance of two and a half miles or further off his new mark of 145.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total - 21.5 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.