Back a couple of soft-ground chasers for the Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 10 & 11
It is not often that I tip horses that came a distant last in their previous race. Especially not for competitive Cheltenham handicaps.
But ALNADAM’s run at Haydock last month, where he came fourth of four and was beaten by 24 lengths, had all the hallmarks of a prep race for a bigger target. And there is no better target trainer in the country at present than Dan Skelton.
With lots of rain forecast over the coming five days, conditions will hopefully be ideal when Alnadam lines up for the Grade 3 Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase – better known as the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup – at Cheltenham on Saturday (December 11th).
Alnadam’s last run of the 2020-21 season was on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival when he was fifth in the Ultima Handicap Chase, beaten by more than 12 lengths.
But that run was much better than it looks. He was right in contention coming to the second last, but did not stay. He also lost a shoe.
He is much better judged on his previous run at Sandown when trip and ground were much more to his liking and he won with plenty in hand. Take the 10-1 each way with bet365 and then do a daily rain dance until the off.
Of the opposition, Dostal Phil, an eyecatcher and my tracker horse from the Paddy Power Gold Cup, should run well. But he has been well found in the market. In fact, after Protektorat’s easy win at Aintree over the weekend, the form of the Paddy Power Gold Cup looks solid. Coole Cody, who looked poised to win the race for this newsletter before falling two out, and Lalor, who will come on for his run for Paul Nicholls, both have big shouts too.
In an ultra-competitive race, I am going in double handed and also backing SILVER HALLMARK. He is another tracker horse.
He made a promising seasonal debut at Carlisle in October behind Fiddlerontheroof but it was his run last season behind the same horse that was even more impressive. Thirteen months ago, he ran Colin Tizzard’s talented chaser to a head at Exeter at level weights. Like Alnadam, he will enjoy the likely soft surface
He has been nibbled at in the market over the past 24 hours and should run a huge race for local trainer Fergal O’Brien. Take the 12-1 each way on Silver Hallmark available with several bookmakers.
One for the horse tracker
Venetia Williams is better known for her soft-ground chasers than her bumper runners, but there was plenty to like about Hunter Legend’s debut at Exeter on Friday. The race was won by another debutant, Alan King’s Clifton Bridge, but Hunter Legend caught the eye. He made up a lot of ground in the last half-mile, and was only ridden hands and heels to ease into third. Judged on this promising display, he can do well for the yard – both this season and in future.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, with Paddy Power, Betfair or BetVictor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places (cash back option). Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2021, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -12 points.
My record over the past six years
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.