Back a 16-1 shot to land a big handicap at Newmarket despite flopping last time out
Flat season 2022: bet 3
The quality of most of the racing this weekend does not match that which York has been offering midweek, but there are some intriguing contests at Newmarket and Newbury.
For my one and only bet of the week, I am looking at the competitive TRU7 Handicap for three-year-olds at the headquarters of British Flat racing – Newmarket.
I was initially drawn to Hughie Morrison’s Haymaker, who was impressive at the course when winning a seven-furlong handicap ten days ago. He will once again relish the likely fast ground, while the drop in trip should be no problem as he showed plenty of speed on May 1.
Haymaker has, however, been put up 6 lbs in the ratings for that win and he has also been nibbled in the market over the past 48 hours, so that 7-1 is now the best price available.
On balance, I am going to go for value and put up AUDITOR as the best bet of the week even though, unlike Haymaker, he was disappointing last time out when no better than seventh of nine runners to Ever Given on May 4.
I am going to forgive him that run because he did not seem to appreciate Chester’s tight turns and/or the rain-softened ground.
Instead, I will judge Martyn Meade’s colt on his seasonal debut at Sandown last month, when he came second to Live in the Dream on fast ground. True, he was beaten the best part of four lengths, but Adam West’s gelding then defied an 8 lbs rise in the ratings to win easily next time out, at Chester on May 4.
Auditor looks a likely runner on Saturday, with the in-form James Doyle already jocked up, and can be backed generally at 16-1. Back him each way, a quarter odds, three places, in the hope that better ground and a more galloping track see him run significantly better than he did just over a week ago.
The Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury sees the return of William Haggas’s talented miler Baaeed. If the four-year-old colt is fit for his seasonal debut, he is the most likely winner on ratings but he is a top priced 1 to 2 on, which is of no interest to me.
Good luck and as ever, if you have enjoyed this newsletter, please forward it to a turf-loving friend.
One for the horse tracker
I love watching replays of the big seven-furlong and one-mile handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, to try to spot a horse who was unlucky and could win when returning to the track later in the season. River Nymph, last year’s winner of the Victoria Cup, did not have a hard luck story as he tried to retain his crown. But he ran a superb race to be third of the 27 runners on Saturday, despite ground that was much faster than he prefers. Clive Cox’s five-year-old gelding stays on the same mark of 102 for that run, and can return to winning ways on the Ascot straight course when he gets his preferred soft ground.
Bets record for the 2022 Flat season
Pending:
1 point each way Auditor for the TRU7 Handicap at 16-1, 1/4 odds, 3 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total + 1 point.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).