This weekly newsletter is written under the nom de plume of “The Antepostman” but there are times when it is definitely better to wait until the 48-hour declarations have been published before betting.
That’s particularly true when the race is certain to have a maximum field, when the horse you fancy’s odds will not change much from its antepost price, when the effect of the draw is significant and when you know you will get extra places from many bookmakers by being patient.
High numbers are usually favoured in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Saturday 3.40pm), which has a maximum field of 25 runners.
This year my long-term fancy Gulliver – put up at 33-1 – has berth 25 but he is a hold-up horse and so he always needs luck in running - something he did not get when sixth at the Curragh last Sunday. As I feared in last week’s newsletter, Fresh is a non runner after picking up a penalty for his recent Ascot win.
But I am going to go in again with one more selection. I take BIELSA to repeat last year’s win in the race for the trainer/jockey team of Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott. This year he again has a fairly favourable draw, in stall 17.
Last year, Bielsa benefitted from coming out of stall 25, ploughing a lone furrow close to the near rail and finishing more than two lengths clear of the second horse, Great Ambassador, who raced close to the far rail.
Bielsa raced off a mark of 98 a year ago. On Saturday he will be just one pound higher in the ratings, following some moderate performances this season.
There has been a tendency this season for horses to land big sprint handicaps for the second year in succession, notably Rohaan in the Wokingham Stakes and Commanche Falls in the Stewards Cup.
There is no doubt that Bielsa is well handicapped if he can recapture his form from 12 months ago. Take the 10-1 each way, six places with bet365 and William Hill.
Gulliver still has an each way chance but he will be disadvantaged if the ground dries out further. The softer, the better for him.
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One for the horse tracker
Call Me Ginger had no luck in running in the Coral Portland Handicap at Doncaster on Sunday. First, Jim Goldie’s six-year-old gelding was very slowly away. Then he had a troubled passage under jockey Amie Waugh, who is well worth her 5 lbs apprentice allowance. All in all, the partnership did well to finish second to the winner, the well-backed Chipstead. To add insult to injury, Goldie forgot to declare Call Me Ginger for this weekend’s Ayr card but the horse can add to his tally of six wins, especially if turning up at Ascot before the season is out. The horse has good form at this track, again under Amie Waugh.
Pending:
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Bielsa at 10-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 6 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
2 points win Intellogent at 8-1 for the John Smith’s Cup. 3rd. – 2 points.
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 16-1 for the International Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 12-1 for the Coral Chesterfield Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hydroplane at 10-1 for the Coral Goodwood Handicap, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Montassib at 10-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ouzo at 16-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 4th + 2.2 points
1 point each way Acklam Express at 15/2 for the Qatar King George Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Inver Park at 16-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Summerghand at 20-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 11-1 for the Stewards Cup Sprint, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Copper Knight at 25-1 for the Sky Bet and Symphony Group Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Cruyff Turn at 16-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Blue for You at 14-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. 1st. + 17.5 points.
2 points win Titan Rock at 17/2 for the Abacus Securities 20-Year Anniversary Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 18-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Euchen Glen at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ever Present at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, 1/5 odds, 5 places with Sky Bet, NRNB. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 for the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap, with bet365, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 12-1 for the National Racehorse Week Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Island Brave at 33-1 for the Old Borough Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. + 41.25
1 point each way Zechariah at 12-1 for the St Leger, 1/5th odds, 3 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point win Gulliver at 16-1 for the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint at the Curragh, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 6th. +2.2 points.
2 points Fresh at 14-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: + 14.61 points
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).