After our 33-1 Sandown winner, two big priced tips for Punchestown
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bet” 54 and 55
It was satisfying to end the British jumps’ season with a 33-1 winner tipped nearly three weeks earlier. Hewick could hardly have landed the bet365 Gold Cup in more convincing style, jumping like a stag and loving the fast ground.
That brings our profit this season to well over 80 points, with the latest big priced winner coming little more than a month after our 50-1 Cheltenham Festival winner Global Citizen. Happy days.
The jumps season is also in its final throes on the other side of the Irish Sea. The Punchestown Festival has thrown up lots of top class racing this week. But it has not tempted me to put on my betting boots – until now.
It is going to take a very decent mare to beat Epatante in the Grade 1 Coolmore Kew Gardens EBF Mares’ Champion Hurdle (3.50pm), now that Nicky’s Henderson’s horse has proved she stays two and a half miles well.
I had expected to put up Mrs Milner on value grounds, but Paul Nolan’s consistent mare would prefer a longer distance and a softer surface. At odds of around 10-1, she is not for me, although I expect her to run well after her unlucky third at the Cheltenham Festival when almost brought to a standstill by a faller at the second last hurdle.
Instead, I am going to take a chance on a horse that definitely can not be relied upon to perform at her best. In fact, Willie Mullins’ mare, BURNING VICTORY, was very disappointing at the Cheltenham Festival and her hurdling has not always been fluent over the past two seasons.
But I cannot get out of my mind her superb run when second to Buzz in last year’s Cesarewitch Handicap. She was only beaten one and a half lengths, giving that talented colt 5 lbs, and she pulled eight and a half lengths or more clear of the rest of the high-class field.
She is still only six and will very likely land more big races on both the Flat and over hurdles. Today she races in a first-time tongue tie and that could improve her chances. Back her at 14-1 each way with bet365 in the hope she can show as much talent over hurdles as she has done over the Flat.
The Tote Always SP Or Better Handicap Hurdle (5.30pm) is an ultra-competitive 25-runner handicap hurdle, but I can’t resist a speculative bet on SAINT D’OROUX because I am convinced this trip of nearly 2 miles and a half is perfect for him.
In his last run at Aintree over three miles, he ran like a non-stayer and before that he ran well at Cheltenham over two miles when the distance looked on the short side for him.
Northern Ireland trainer Stuart Crawford inherited this horse from Gordon Elliott and Saint D’oroux ran plenty of decent races for his previous yard, including when third in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival.
Saint D’oroux is suited by big-field handicap hurdles, so back him each way at 40-1 with Betfred offering six places.
I haven’t forgotten that it is the first Classic of the Flat season today, the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. But I am going to wait until next week to turn my attention to the Flat.
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One for the Horse Tracker
State Man was hugely impressive in the Grade 1 Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown yesterday, winning hard held by seven lengths. That run came on top of an equally comfortable victory in the County Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Willie Mullins clearly rates this five-year-old gelding extremely highly and he can go to the very top next season. I am certain that he is a genuine Champion Hurdle contender for March 2023 and ante post odds of up 12-1 (Betfred) for that race look fair.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Burning Victory at 14-1 Punchestown 3.50pm, 1/5 odds, paying three places.
1 point each way Saint D’oroux at 40-1 Punchestown 5.30pm, 1/5 odds, paying six places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaed – 2 points
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 2nd + 1 point.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 5th + 2.2 points
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. – 2 points.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB or the Grand Annual, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points
2 points win Amarillo Sky at 10-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual. Unplaced. -2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places. 1st + 60 points.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 20-1 NRNB for the Paddy Power Plate 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places. NR Stake returned.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 10-1 NRNB for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR. Stake returned.
1 point each way Royale Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Jersey Bean at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National 1/4 odds, 4 places. NR. - 2 points.
1 point each way Kitty’s Light at 14-1 for the Scottish Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2.5 points
1 point each way Innisfree Lad at 33-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. NR. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 16-1 for the Red Rum Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 20-1 for the Topham Chase ¼ odds, 4 places. NR. – 2 points.
1 point each way Senior Citizen at 11-1 in the Topham, 1/5 odds, 8 places. 8th + 1.2 points.
1 point each way Dans Le Vent at 14-1 in the Aintree 1.45pm race tomorrow, with bet365 1/5thodds, 5 places. Fell – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 12-1 in the Aintree 1.45pm race tomorrow, with bet365, 1/5th odds, 5 places. 1st + 14.4 points.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places. 2nd. + 4 points.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. UR. - 2 points.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places. PU - 2 points.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places. PU. – 2 points.
1 point each way Discorama at 33-1 for the Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. PU. - 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Hewick at 33-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 1st. + 41.25 points.
1 point each way Potterman at 14-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Press Your Luck at 5-1 in the Sandown 5.15pm, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 4th but Non Runners meant unplaced. – 2 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total + 81.95 points.