After our 14-1 winner yesterday with the only tip of the week, two 16-1 shouts for Festival handicaps
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 37 & 38
As noted in last week’s newsletter, it’s always nice to have a big-priced winner in the run-up to the Cheltenham Festival to boost the betting coffers.
So it was particularly satisfying to have nailed a 14-1 winner yesterday with my only tip running during the past seven days. Cormier, put up a week ago, was a cosy winner of the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso and showed a profit of 17.5 points to the recommended 1 point each way stake. Happy days…
In the meantime, my search for Cheltenham Festival winners goes on despite bookmakers squeezing ante-post prices left, right and centre with their Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) offers.
It was a year ago that trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies described stable inmate GOWEL ROAD as “one of the nicest young horses we’ve had in a long time”.
That was just days before his flop in the County Hurdle at last year’s Festival, when he finished 20th of the 25 runners beaten more than 20 lengths.
That run hardly inspired confidence. But both the horse and his handler are in much better form than they were 12 months ago and I expect a hugely-improved run in the Coral Cup on March 16.
The six-year-old gelding is not ground dependent and his last three runs have all been excellent. I was particularly taken with his latest race at Lingfield in January when he came second to the well-handicapped Metier over a distance well short of the runner-up’s best trip.
Gowel Road also has good course form at Cheltenham from his win in November when he beat Unexpected Party, one of the favourites for the Coral Cup, over the Coral Cup distance.
I rate him a first class each way bet at 16-1 NRNB with Ladbrokes and Coral paying five places in an ultra-competitive handicap with plenty of “plot horses” from the other side of the Irish Sea.
Do take the NRNB since Gowel Road also has an entry in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle on the last day of the Festival.
I am also going in double-handed for another brutally competitive handicap, having already put up Saint Segal in the Boodles’ Juvenile Hurdle on the opening day, March 15.
Last week, trainer Dan Skelton advocated a new policy of keeping his most fancied horses “fresh” for their respective Festival targets.
He’s certainly done that with TOO FRIENDLY who has not run since a decent performance when fourth behind talented pair Knight Salute and Porticello at Doncaster on December 11.
That followed two wins in small-field juvenile hurdles. He has clearly been wrapped in cotton wool since then for a tilt at a big Festival prize.
Take the 16-1 NRNB each way on Too Friendly in the Boodles Hurdle, with William Hill paying five places. The horse also has an entry in the JCB Triumph Hurdle, again on the final day of the Festival. He’s unlikely to take it up, but take the NRNB to be safe.
One for the horse tracker
Saint D’oroux ran a cracker yesterday to be runner-up to Cormier in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso given his troubled run. He made a mistake at the last hurdle (usually the third last) and got hampered close home but plugged on well against the well-handicapped winner. This horse finished third in the Boodles Hurdle at the Festival two years ago and later ran well in big handicaps in Ireland. He has just one Festival entry – in the Coral Cup – and there are a lot worse 33-1 shots NRNB. My only worry is that he may just be better over a fast-run two miles than he is over a fast-run 2 miles 5 furlongs. So I am not putting him up as a “maximum bet” for this reason alone.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 for the Grand Annual NRNB, 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unpalced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total – 1.6 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.