A tip for the big handicap this weekend and a 33-1 shot for the Falmouth Stakes
Flat season 2022: bets 24 & 25
Call me over-sentimental if you will but I am desperately hoping that Brian Ellison achieves his long-held ambition this weekend of training the winner of the Northumberland Plate.
This is the only all-weather race of the year that captures my attention as a gambler – it is a really top-class two-mile handicap with a first prize of £81,000. It is targeted by the top trainers with their best staying handicappers.
I have long had a soft spot for the likeable Ellison, all the more so after one of his horses, Cormier, won the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso earlier this year after being tipped in this newsletter at 14-1.
A win for ONESMOOTHOPERATOR tomorrow (Newcastle 3.30pm) would be an early birthday present for Ellison, who turns 70 early next week. He was born in Newcastle upon Tyne on June 28 1952, the same day that red-hot favourite, Souepi, won the... Northumberland Plate.
For decades, winning the race at his home track has been on his “bucket list” but the best the trainer has done to date is finish second with his runner, Seamour, in 2016.
Onesmoothoperator has the ability to go one better than Seamour. He has plenty of sound course and distance form on this Tapeta track and he will have been primed for this race all season. His last run – when last of six runners in a Listed race at York – was also much more encouraging than it first appeared.
There are plenty of dangers headed by the favourite Rajinsky. The form of his two big runs this season have been franked by those who finished close to him in both races and he finished third in this race last year.
However, that was off a mark of 93, 8 lbs lower than his rating now, and he has been well found in the market, being the likely favourite. Rainbow Dancer, trained by Alan King, is also nicely treated having dropped down the rating but may be vulnerable to a younger improver.
On balance, I will stick with just the one horse in the race: back Onesmoothoperator each way at 13/2 with Sky Bet paying seven places. There are slightly bigger odds available elsewhere but I want the extra places. Prepare to see Ellison beaming with delight in if he is able to lead his four-year-old gelding into the winner’s enclosure.
I have one other suggestion – a long shot for the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket on Friday July 8. Unsurprisingly, the Gosdens’-trained horse Inspiral is long odds on after his demolition job at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes.
But, at the prices, I am much more interested in PRIMO BACIO, who returned to her best form when third in the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes, also at Royal Ascot.
Primo Bacio’s talent means she should have won more than two of her 12 runs to date but, at four years old, the best may still be to come for trainer Ed Walker’s filly. Walker says this race is the horse’s next target – she was 5th in the race last year after a troubled passage.
Back her each way at 33-1 with almost all bookies offering that price at the time of writing and hope the weather stays fine as she is at her best on good ground or faster.
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One for the horse tracker
I have made notes on plenty of horses that ran well but unluckily in top handicaps at Royal Ascot last week, notably in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. But the horse I am certain has a bright future is Irish trainer Johnny Murtagh’s three-year-old gelding Flying Dolphin. The horse was held up in the rear of the big field, before finding plenty of trouble near the business end of the King George V Stakes. Beaten just over two lengths by the winner, he has the potential to land a major handicap over a mile and a half, or even further, this season or next.
Pending:
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
2022 Flat season running total - 6.79 points.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).