A tip for Haydock later this month and three more for Cheltenham
Jumps season 2022-3: bets 8, 9, 10 & 11
Harry Fry has his string in top form and even had a big-race winner on the Flat on Saturday, when Metier won the BetGoodwin November Handicap under a fine ride from Saffie Osborne.
In a pre-season interview, Fry said he was convinced he had “our best team ever”, adding: "We’ve got quality and strength across the board.” I share that view and expect the talented and dedicated trainer to pick up plenty of top prizes this season, particularly with his handicap hurdlers.
MIGHT I is a progressive hurdler who is almost certain to benefit from being stepped up in distance. I make him an excellent bet for the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday week (November 19).
His key piece of good form was his final run of last season, when he was second to Three Stripe Life in a Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Aintree. Might I has gone up in the ratings for that run but still looks well treated off a mark of 142.
This race has been the plan for several months and it looks perfect for the six-year-old gelding who goes well fresh. As always with a big pot on offer – more than £70,000 to the winner – there are plenty of dangers headed by Run for Oscar, who was so impressive when landing the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket last month.
The suggestion is two points win Might I at 8-1 with Sky Bet, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfair and others. I am not going each way – at only 2-1 for the place – in such a competitive handicap so it is on the nose for me.
I covered the two big handicaps at Cheltenham in last week’s newsletter but, having seen the five and six-day declarations, there is one horse that looks overpriced in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle: Evan Williams’ talented mare CURRENT MOOD.
Williams rates this horse highly and a fast-run two miles should be right up her street. I can’t resist backing her each way at 20-1, four places, with bet365. Ignore her last run of the season when everything went wrong for her in the Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. Trust me, she is way better than that run suggested.
This Friday at Cheltenham, there are a couple of other each way bets worth having in handicap chases, where I am keen to take on both favourites on value grounds alone.
As my shrewd friend George pointed out to me, HASANKEY has some good form to his name, notably when sixth in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Case at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He also ran well on his reappearance at Ayr last month.
With his usual apprentice jockey Lewis Dobb claiming 7lbs, Hasankey has a real chance of landing the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (1.45pm). He goes on all going, so take the 9-1 each way with Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair and others.
In the next race on the card, the SSS Super Alloys Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (2.20pm), Festival winner Banbridge is all the rage to win on his second start over fences. But he is a near even money shot which is a silly price for a race of this nature and this makes each way betting attractive.
I was tempted to put up Pull Again Green after his encouraging seasonal debut at Cheltenham last month. But, on balance, my preference is for a chasing debutant from the in-form yard of Chris Gordon.
UNANSWERED PRAYERS ran well on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Chepstow last month and has apparently schooled well at home over the larger obstacles. Back him at 10-1 each way with Paddy Power or Betfair.
One for the horse tracker
Gesskille ran a cracker to be second to Al Dancer in the Boylesport-sponsored Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday, beaten on the nod. He is only six years old and will be even better when stepped up in trip. He clearly loves the Grand National fences and could be one for the Becher Chase if returning to Aintree next month. If that race comes too soon, then there will be plenty of other targets for him later in the season. He’s gone up a little in the official ratings today for his weekend run but Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero’s gelding has plenty of scope to improve, even off his new mark of 137.
Pending:
1 point each way Unanswered Prayers at 10-1 in the SSS Super Alloys Novices' Limited Handicap Chase, 3 places.
1 point each way Hasankey at 9-1 in the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase, 3 places.
1 point each way Ga Law at 10-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds 4 places.
1 point each way Shakem Up’Arry at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds 4 places.
1 point each way Gin Coco at 16-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Severance at 20-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Current Mood at 20-1 for the Greatwood Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2 points win Might I at 8-1 for the Betfair Exchange Stayers Hurdle.
1 point each way Annsam at 50-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 16-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spiritofthegames at 25-1 for the Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
Jumps season 2022-3 running total: - 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: + 9.01 points
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of just over 469 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).