A strong fancy for Sandown on Saturday, and two value bets for the Festival handicaps
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 25, 26 and 27
The Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday has a first prize of more than £55,000, so it is unsurprising that it is a competitive affair.
Dans Le Vent, who will appreciate the step back in trip to three miles, Beauport, for the in-form Twiston-Davies team, and Call Me Lord, who is well handicapped on his best form, all have strong chances.
But I have been waiting all season for GREEN BOOK to be stepped up in trip to three miles over hurdles so I am not going to look anywhere else for the winner.
I loved his effort at Glorious Goodwood last summer in one of the longest races in the Flat calendar, when he was fourth to the well-handicapped Calling The Wind on good ground.
That fine run was over more than two and a half miles – and he lost a shoe – so this longer trip over three miles should be perfect for him.
Forgive him his unseated rider last time out at Kempton, when he was badly hampered by a faller at only the second hurdle. He has two entries in the big Cheltenham Festival long-distance novice hurdle races. It is clear that Venetia Williams rates this five-year-old gelding very highly.
He could be thrown in off his rating of just 130. Take the 7-1 on Green Book with one of the several bookies paying six places in the 18-runner field.
I also have my first strong fancy for one of the Festival handicaps. I am putting on my betting boots. The horse is being offered at big prices Non Runner No Bet and, if as expected, he lines up in the Ultima Handicap Chase, he will be much shorter on the day.
The horse in question is FULL BACK, trained by Gary Moore and likely to be ridden at the Festival by his son, Jamie. The seven-year-old gelding won a decent handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but it was his next run that convinced me he is a lot better than his current mark of 140.
Full Back was heavily backed to beat Yala Enki in a non-handicap at Taunton despite being 16 lbs “wrong” at the weights. Beaten less than four lengths, he was ridden with confidence and might have won but for some jumping errors. That was a mighty performance at the weights.
The Ultima, in which British horses have a good record against their Irish counterparts, is the ideal contest for him. Take the 20-1 NRNB each way offered by William Hill (25-1 elsewhere without the NRNB concession).
I can see Full Back contesting a big National, even the Aintree one, next season.
I am also backing another horse for a Festival handicap on the opening day. SAINT SEGAL is being aimed at the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle after just three runs, all top-notch. There are certain to be plenty of Irish “plot horses” in the race, but Jane Williams’ improver can see them off from his current rating of just 126.
Back this horse at 12-1 each way with Betfred. The attraction is that this bookie is paying five places and is NRNB. He may not be a lot shorter on the day, but the odds are more than fair with the NRNB concession.
For those who have followed my big price tips in the Grand National, all four horses were entered earlier this week. The main point to note, however, is that all four should make the “cut” for the race if they stay sound. Around 60 or the 107 entries have little or no chance of getting a run at Aintree off their current ratings.
One for the horse tracker
Donald McCain is testament to the old saying: “Form is temporary but class is permanent”. After some quiet seasons – that followed plenty of much better ones – the trainer is banging in winners all over the place. Gaelik Coast is a winner-in-waiting after his fourth place at Cheltenham on Saturday behind Torn and Frayed. That was his first run back from a wind operation. Gaelik Coast is a sound jumper, better suited to a flatter track than Cheltenham. The Topham Trophy at Aintree in April would be made for him if McCain decides to aim high. Jockey Brian Hughes clearly rates this horse, too. He is definitely better than his current rating of 137.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total - 21.5 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.