A mare to back NRNB in two races at the Cheltenham Festival, plus a tip for the Coral Trophy
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 31, 32 & 33
I was staggered to read that Alan King has had 86 runners since his last Cheltenham Festival winner in 2015. Does this mean that the trainer, who has saddled 15 Festival winners during his illustrious career, has lost his touch?
Not a bit of it. King is still one of the foremost target trainers in the country. In recent years he has run a true “dual purpose” yard, winning lots of major races on the Flat, including at Royal Ascot.
The statistics - and similar long waits on the Festival “cold list” for many other talented British-based handlers - simply show how hard it is to train a single Festival winner these days when faced with the quality of opposition from the other side of the Irish Sea.
The affable King, who has his string in fine form, may well get his next Festival winner as early as the second race of this year’s meeting, courtesy of his talented novice chaser Edwardstone, who is now favourite for the Sporting Life Arkle Novices' Chase.
But he is not my sort of price. Another King horse interests me as better value to strike later in the week. I was at Cheltenham’s November meeting back in 2018 when The Glancing Queen raced up the hill to win a tad cosily on her racecourse debut.
I have watched her progress with interest ever since, especially now that she has gone chasing. She is two wins from three races this season. My first impression from her last run was that it was disappointing.
On reflection, however, she had an impossible task against L’Homme Presse at Cheltenham when receiving only 5 lbs, eventually finishing second beaten ten lengths. Venetia Williams’ talented gelding now has an official rating of 159, no less.
The Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase has been The Glancing Queen’s long-term aim but in that race she would have to take on tough opposition from the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards, with some potential rivals rated 10 lbs or more higher.
As King noted in his recent Weekender column, she now looks likely to get an entry in the Paddy Power Plate where she could well make her presence felt of a mark of 141.
The solution is to back THE GLANCING QUEEN for both races NRNB at 10-1 and 20-1 respectively (both prices with William Hill) and then hope the heavens open as she is best on soft ground. If she fails to run at the Festival at all because of fast ground, both stakes will be returned in full.
My other recommended bet is in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton on Saturday week. I have already put up Annsam in this race but I am going to go in double handed with Nicky Henderson’s CARIBEAN BOY.
The trainer revealed in the Racing Post today that his gelding will go to Kempton before tackling the Randox Grand National. I thought his last run at Kempton was hugely impressive. The third horse that day, Wishing and Hoping, boosted that form when a close second at Warwick yesterday.
A 4lbs rise for his latest win seems lenient and he is well handicapped on his best form last season. Be brave and back Caribean Boy 2 points to win at 10-1 with various bookies as he can be an “in and out” performer who throws in the odd bad run.
One for the horse tracker
Warren Greatrex has had a couple of poor seasons to deal with since some glory days as a trainer. This season started poorly too but there are signs of a recent resurgence in the yard’s fortunes. Jaramillo, who took a heavy fall on his hurdling debut at Warwick, ran a cracker at Newbury on Saturday and can go one better soon. That second place also boosted the form of the Warwick race won by Saint Segal, who remains on course for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on day 1 of the Festival. Jaramillo was being well held by Saint Segal in the Warwick contest before the Greatrex gelding came down two out.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheraod at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
Pending:
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase.
2 point win Caribean Boy at 10-1 in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase.
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total: - 13.1 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.