A “hello” to the Flat season with two big priced tips for the Chester Cup
Flat season 2022: bets 1 & 2
It’s time to say a fond farewell to the 2021-2 jumps season which, after a slow start, yielded a profit of nearly 80 points. That included winners at 50-1 and 33-1 from less than 60 bets, and means I have recorded 12 profitable seasons from the last 13. A favour to ask. If you have enjoyed the letters and – hopefully – made a few quid, could you sign up one friend to the newsletter?
It’s also time to say a warm “hello” to the 2022 Flat season. It will not surprise regular readers that I am interested in the first big staying handicap of the season – the Tote Chester Cup.
The 2021-22 jumps season saw Irish trainers launch many successful raids over the Irish Sea to land big British hurdles and chase handicaps – and not just at the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National meeting.
It is a pattern I can see repeating itself during the forthcoming Flat season, hopefully starting on Friday. For the two horses that I fancy in the 2 miles 2 furlongs contest are both trained by Irish handlers.
The first is ARCADIAN SUNRISE trained by John Queally in Co Waterford. Queally brought this horse over to York in August to land the Sky Bet Handicap over two miles, less than a month after winning a handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival.
Arcadian Sunset, who is eight, won the York contest very cosily after getting a typically patient Jamie Spencer ride. Spencer has been booked again and, provided the gelding has luck in running over this tight course, I can see him figuring in the finish on Friday.
Back him each way at 16-1 with bet365. There will be more places on offer after the 48-hour declarations tomorrow but I doubt that the 16s will last.
The other Irish runner I like is MORPH SPEED, who is trained in Co Limerick by Richard John O’Brien. This six-year-old gelding looks to have been laid out for this £77,000 pot, with a prep run over a totally inadequate trip of a mile last time out at Limerick.
He’s not 100 per cent guaranteed to stay this trip but Hayley Turner has been booked for the ride and he is decent each way value at 25-1, again with bet365.
Both my fancies for the race look likely to get their preferred good ground, with little rain forecast. I simply have to hope they get favourable draws because low numbers have a distinct advantage over this course, even over marathon trips like the Chester Cup.
One for the horse tracker
Caradoc has been a frustrating horse to train by Ed Walker, rarely justifying the high opinion that his handler has of his gelding. On Saturday, Caradoc was slowly away in the William Hill Extra Places Everyday Handicap at Goodwood but rallied well to get within a length and a quarter of the well-backed Moktasaab. He can land a decent handicap over a trip of around 1 miles 2 furlongs when he, once again, gets his preferred fast ground. The horse is seven now so time is running out for him to leave his mark but don’t give up on him quite yet.
2021-2 jumps season to recommended bets: + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).