A bet for the New Year’s Day chase at Cheltenham, and another for the Festival
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bets” 14 & 15
Coole Cody is as “tough as teak,” according to his trainer Evan Williams, and it may be unwise to look elsewhere for the winner of the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase.
Dan Skelton’s Alnadam is another I have been keen to back this season but the ground may not have quite as much cut as he prefers. “Heavy” is his ideal terrain, although I imagine he would take his chance on “soft”.
Instead of backing either horse, however, I am going to suggest a wager on a well-handicapped gelding from the stable of a trainer, Nick Williams, that I love to follow. GALAHAD QUEST opened up at 12-1 earlier this week with most bookies but that price has long gone.
He fell last time at Aintree but he is usually a slick, safe jumper and he is a real Cheltenham specialist, having won at the course last season over hurdles. I am convinced that he is better than his current chase mark of 134 and so the 9-1 with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral, all paying four places, still looks fair each way.
Another horse in the race who is on my radar is Deyrann De Carjac. He, too, needs to jump better than he did last time when fifth behind the aforementioned Coole Cody at Cheltenham. But trainer Alan King has made it clear this horse prefers good ground and he is unlikely to run if the ground is “soft” or worse.
It’s also time to back another horse ante post for the Cheltenham Festival. Tiger Roll will win the Cross Country Chase yet again if he turns up at his best in March – but that’s a big “if” given that he is about to turn 12.
At the prices, I prefer a horse trained by the Irish cross-country specialist Edna Bolger: SHADY OPERATOR. Back him each way at 14-1 with bet365. This race is certain to be his big target for the season and he is a talented animal.
I will only usually put up ante post bets, but I may make an exception this weekend for a race at Cheltenham where there are currently no odds available. Watch this space for a possible second newsletter of the week in the next 48 hours…
One for the horse tracker
Pat’s Fancy won a decent novices’ handicap chase at Chepstow on Monday despite being 5lbs out of the handicap. Rebecca Curtis’s six-year-old gelding is improving leaps and bounds with every run and loves soft ground. He is certain to go up in the ratings for his latest win, but follow him until beaten when there is plenty of cut over three miles or more. Given his love for soft ground and Chepstow, he would not be out of place in next year’s Welsh Grand National.
Maximum bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
Pending:
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March 2022, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase in March 2022, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the 2022 Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
2021-22 jumps season running total -13.5 points.
My gambling record for the past six seasons
I have made a profit in 11 or the past 12 seasons, providing my “maximum bets” in a newsletter to a small group of friends. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of more than 380 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win. In one jumps’ season alone, I made more than 110 points.
All of my 17 bookmaker accounts has now either been closed or heavily restricted, so I have decided to write a newsletter rather than take on the old enemy every week myself.
This was my assessment of the October 2021 Cesarewitch at Newmarket in my newsletter sent out more than five weeks before the race:
“Willie Mullins will probably win the Cesarewitch with one of his giant string. Last year I put up Great White Shark at 14-1 as a ‘max bet’ and he romped it, backed into 9-2 favourite. That was relatively easy as the horse was Mullins's only entry in the race and he ticked lots of boxes. This year is much more difficult because the canny Irishman has no less than thirteen entries and I have no idea which horses will and will not run. So I am looking elsewhere for value...
“Dual purpose horses have a good record in the race and jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has just one entry in the race: BUZZ. This gelding is very well handicapped now on the Flat compared with his jumps rating of 155, recorded when he was second in the Grade 1
Aintree Hurdle on his latest start. Buzz goes on most ground and is Henderson's only entry in the race so I am hoping this race is very much his target for the autumn before another hurdles; campaign. Take the 16-1 with Skybet or Betfred paying five places.”
Buzz won the 2021 Cesarewitch at a starting price of 8-1, a 20 points profit to the recommended bet.