I had expected to put up two horses for tomorrow’s Peroni Nastro Azzurro Challenge Cup at Ascot, but I delayed my newsletter in order to get more places with the bookmakers and now the best prices have gone.
Fresh, who was 8-1 a couple of days ago, is now a top priced 6-1, and Safe Voyage, who was 14-1, has almost halved in price. So, given the competitive nature of this 18-runner handicap, I am going to pass on both horses now that the value has gone.
Furthermore, the Biblical rain that was forecast to fall at Ascot this afternoon and overnight is now likely to be more moderate so the very soft conditions loved by both horses are not guaranteed.
Instead, I am finally going to turn my attention to my favourite Flat race handicap of the season – the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap run at Newmarket tomorrow week.
This is a race in which dual-purpose horses, with good form over hurdles, have a superb record. So it is no surprise to see both David Pipe’s Adagio and Nicky Henderson’s Ahorsewithnoname at the top of the market. Both have excellent chances based on their hurdles’ ratings but the value prices have, once again, long gone.
I was going to wait putting up this horse for the Cesarewitch too but, rather annoyingly, Maddy Playle tipped him in this week’s Racing Post Weekender, and so the 33-1 – currently available with bet365 and BetVictor – will not almost certainly not last until the off, when more places will again be on offer.
I wouldn’t normally recommend backing William Haggas cast-offs but this horse, FAVORITE MOON, has gone to the yard of shrewd Irish trainer William Durkan. Trust me when I say that this handler only puts his horses on the ferry across the Irish Sea if they have a good chance of paying for their return journey.
Favorite Moon is best on soft ground but he ran well enough when winning his prep race for the Cesarewitch on faster ground at Downpatrick last month. That was over hurdles so as not to harm his handicap mark on the Flat.
I would be pretty sure that the Cesarewitch has been the plan for this horse for most of the season. Connections might put on their betting boots too when they make the trip to Newmarket a week tomorrow.
After a wet weekend, next week will be drier so the five-year-old gelding will probably not have his ideal conditions. But, at 33-1, I am prepared to take my chances even with only four places on offer currently. Back him each way at 33-1 with either of the two bookies mentioned above.
I will almost certainly go in double-handed for the race next week once I know the likely ground conditions.
As always, if you are enjoying these newsletters, please recommend them to a friend.
One for the horse tracker
Caradoc is a horse I have tipped twice this season, only to see him disappoint. It was almost a case of “sod’s law” last Saturday when I didn’t put him up in the bet365 Cambridgeshire in which he ran a mighty race to be 4th at 66-1. Caradoc was unlucky in running too as he was hampered as he made progress more than a furlong out and was full of running at the finish. Ed Walker’s gelding will never be one for the mortgage because he puts in more bad runs than good but I still believe he can win a big-field handicap either later this season or next.
Pending:
1 point each way Favorite Moon at 33-1 for the Cesarewitch, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise Cup at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor at 16-1 in the TRU7 Handicap, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 11-1 the Cazoo Handicap, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Westover at 20-1 in the Cazoo Derby,, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Changingoftheguard at 9-1 in the Cazoo Derby, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Moneista at 16-1 in the King’s Stand Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rock Eagle at 20-1 in the Ascot Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Raymond Tusk at 33-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 14-1 in the Copper Horse Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 1st. + 16.8 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 40-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Symbolize at 18-1 in the Royal Hunt Cup, 1/5 odds, 8 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rosemary and Thyme at 40-1 in the Kensington Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Princess Zoe at 13/2 for the Ascot Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 25-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. .Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dance Fever at 20-1 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stay Well at 16-1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Minzaal at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Double or Bubble at 14-1 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 33-1 in the Wokingham Handicap, 1/5 odds, 7 places. 2nd. + 5.6 points.
1 point each way Calling the Wind at 14-1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. 3rdbut Rule 4 deduction. + 0.81 points.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Primo Bacio at 33-1 for the Falmouth Stakes, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Star of Orion at 16-1 for the Bunbury Cup 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
2 points win Intellogent at 8-1 for the John Smith’s Cup. 3rd. – 2 points.
2 points win Tactical at 12-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Air to Air at 20-1 for the International Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ropey Guest at 16-1 for the International Stakes, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Caradoc at 12-1 for the Coral Chesterfield Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hydroplane at 10-1 for the Coral Goodwood Handicap, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Montassib at 10-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ouzo at 16-1 for the Coral Golden Mile, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 4th + 2.2 points
1 point each way Acklam Express at 15/2 for the Qatar King George Stakes, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Inver Park at 16-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Summerghand at 20-1 for the Coral Stewards Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 11-1 for the Stewards Cup Sprint, 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Copper Knight at 25-1 for the Sky Bet and Symphony Group Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Cruyff Turn at 16-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Blue for You at 14-1 for the Clipper Logistics handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. 1st. + 17.5 points.
2 points win Titan Rock at 17/2 for the Abacus Securities 20-Year Anniversary Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Get Shirty at 18-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Euchen Glen at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ever Present at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Ebor, 1/5 odds, 5 places with Sky Bet, NRNB. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gulliver at 33-1 for the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap, with bet365, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Aratus at 12-1 for the National Racehorse Week Handicap, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Island Brave at 33-1 for the Old Borough Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. + 41.25
1 point each way Zechariah at 12-1 for the St Leger, 1/5th odds, 3 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point win Gulliver at 16-1 for the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint at the Curragh, 1/5odds, 6 places. 6th. +2.2 points.
2 points Fresh at 14-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
point each way Gulliver at 33-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Bielsa at 10-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup, 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1point each way Legend of Dubai at 16-1 for the Cambridgeshire, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Perotto at 33-1 for the Cambridgeshire, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total: + 6.61 points
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake)