A 20-1 tip for the Topham Chase and two for the Scottish Grand National
Jumps season 2021-2 “max bets” 44, 45 & 46
The running of the SBK Lincoln Handicap heralded the arrival of the Flat season yesterday, amid glorious spring sunshine at Doncaster.
Yet with little or no recent form for most of the runners, I won’t be getting excited about the Flat for another few weeks.
But I am certainly super-excited about both the Coral Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr next weekend and the Randox Grand National meeting at Aintree the week after.
I can see plenty of excellent betting opportunities at both. I will start by looking at the Randox Topham Handicap Chase at Aintree on April 8.
I put up Mister Coffey for my horse tracker last week after his top run at the Cheltenham Festival. He had a hard race that day and I put his improved form down to the step up in trip beyond three miles for the first time.
If he runs in the Topham, for which he is vying for favouritism, he will be down again in trip. So at relatively cramped odds, he is not for me, given this is a 30-runner handicap over the National fences.
I much prefer another tracker horse from nearly two months ago, who I noted after his promising last run when fourth at Cheltenham. In my newsletter of February 3, I wrote:
“Gaelik Coast is a winner-in-waiting after his fourth place at Cheltenham on Saturday behind Torn and Frayed. That was his first run back from a wind operation. Gaelik Coast is a sound jumper better suited by a flatter track than Cheltenham and so the Topham Trophy at Aintree in April would be made for him if [Donald] McCain decides to aim high with this classy eight-year-old gelding. Jockey Brian Hughes clearly rates this horse too and he is definitely better than his current rating of 137.”
Sure enough, GAELIK COAST has been entered in the Topham. I make him a first-class each-way bet at 20-1 generally. Aintree specialists Senior Citizen and Mac Tottie are the biggest dangers in an open race.
I am also going to go in triple-handed in the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr next Saturday.
My first selection, Kitty’s Light, from last weekend, has halved in price from 14-1 over the past seven days. He is looking like a good bet. His Welsh trainer Christian Williams will have him spot-on for next Saturday.
There are, however, two other horses that I fancy at big prices in the same race. The first is INNISFREE LAD for a trainer, David Dennis, who always gets the best out of his veteran chasers.
Innisfree Lad’s only two runs over chases this year resulted in a win in a Plumpton veterans’ race, and an even more commendable third behind Win My Wings (a stablemate of Kitty’s Light) in the Vertem Eider Chase at Newcastle last month.
Innisfree Lad stays the marathon four miles of the Scottish National well and is a sound jumper who seems to be better than ever at ten years old.
Take the 33-1 each way with Paddy Power or Betfair, as they are paying five places rather than the standard four. Of course, you can wait for more places from bookmakers after Thursday’s 48-hour declarations, but the 33-1 may no longer be available then.
I am also sweet on the chances of HEWICK for the Irish trainer “Shark” Hanlon.
Being pulled up in the Boulton Group Midlands Grand National only eight days ago might not seem like the ideal preparation. But that was his first run after a five-month break, he would not have been suited by the soft ground and he was hampered by a loose horse five out. Trust me, this bargain buy is a lot better than he showed that day.
The probable fast ground at Ayr next week will be much more to his liking. If he takes his chance (and he is not a certain runner), I think he will put up a big performance despite having run in two marathon handicap chases within a fortnight.
Take the 20-1 each way with Paddy Power or Betfair fixed odds, because they are paying five places. He’s the same odds with William Hill offering one place less.
One for the Horse Tracker
Rogue Bear was desperately unlucky not to land the SBK Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster yesterday for his young Newmarket handler Tom Clover. Well supported in the market, down to 12-1, the lightly-raced four-year-old gelding missed the break, got hampered shortly afterwards and then came with a storming run on the near side to grab third on the line. Granted a better passage next time out, he can land a big one-mile handicap, perhaps something like the Spring Cup at Newbury next month.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Kitty’s Light at 14-1 for the Scottish Grand National, ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Innisfree Lad at 33-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, five place.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 20-1 for the Topham Chase ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Discorama at 33-1 for the Grand National, 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaed – 2 points
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 2nd + 1 point.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 5th + 2.2 points
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. – 2 points.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB or the Grand Annual, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points
2 points win Amarillo Sky at 10-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual. Unplaced. -2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places. 1st + 60 points.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 20-1 NRNB for the Paddy Power Plate 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places. NR Stake returned.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 10-1 NRNB for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR. Stake returned.
1 point each way Royale Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Jersey Bean at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National 1/4 odds, 4 places. NR. - 2 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total + 38.6 points.