A 20-1 shot for the Derby and a 33-1 tip for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot
Flat season 2022: bets 5 & 6
The last five runnings of the Cazoo Derby have largely been bookies’ benefits with the winners returning odds of 40-1, 25-1, 16-1 twice and 13/2.
So although the two horses at the head of the market for the big race on Saturday week look to have solid credentials, their odds are decidedly skinny.
Desert Crown was impressive when landing York’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes earlier this month, and he has a good chance of giving veteran Newmarket trainer Sir Michael Stoute his sixth Derby winner. It is incredible to think that Stoute’s first Derby winner came all of 41 years ago, with the mighty but ill-fated Shergar.
Those who have backed Desert Crown at big prices have every reason to feel smug but the 9/4 on offer now makes no appeal.
Market rival Stone Age was equally dominant in his Epsom prep race, the Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown. He is likely to prove the pick of Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien’s runners, but odds of under 3-1 again look short.
Horses such as Sir Bob Parker and Sonny Liston, both currently 50-1, may well outrun their odds for connections. But I think the best each way value lies with Ralph Beckett’s WESTOVER.
Beckett has never been able to hide the high opinion that he has of this horse and the trainer took him to Epsom on Monday for a gallop. The three-year-old colt, a huge beast of a horse, seemed to take well to the course’s unique undulations and turns. He has a real chance of giving his trainer his first Derby winner.
After Monday’s spin, Beckett said of Westover’s chances in the Derby: “I think he's got a genuine chance of being in the mix. Do I think he can win? That would be a big shout, but he can definitely be in the first four.”
Back Westover, a son of all-conquering Frankel, each way at 20-1 with either bet365 or William Hill.
I have also been poring over the form of two of the big Royal Ascot handicaps: the Royal Hunt Cup on June 15 and the Wokingham Stakes three days later.
The horse I most fancy for the Royal Hunt Cup, over a mile, may well also get an entry in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, also at the royal meeting, over a furlong shorter.
I am therefore going to keep my powder dry for now, rather than risk backing a non-runner ante post. But watch this space when the horse’s Royal Ascot target is confirmed because I will be putting on my betting boots.
For now, I will concentrate on the Wokingham Handicap, run over six furlongs on the final day of Royal Ascot – Saturday June 18. For the winner of this race, I look for either a young improving sprinter – such as Rohaan last year - or a hardened handicapper who loves Ascot.
Michael Dods’ Blackrod is in the former category and could win this with something in hand off his current rating of 100. His trainer has given him an entry in the Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket so he clearly thinks he has an improving horse on his hands.
But Blackrod is no bigger than 12-1 in a 28-runner race so I am going to go for a horse in the latter category – a hardened handicapper who loves Ascot. Step forward David O’Meara’s GULLIVER, who is now eight years old and has been 4th and 5th in the last two runnings of the Wokingham.
He proved himself to be in fine fettle on his seasonal debut at York on Sunday sprinting from last to first in the closing stages before lack of fitness appeared to tell and he weakened into third.
He may go up a couple of pounds in the ratings for that run but the Wokingham is an early closing handicap so he will run off a favourable rating of 100 at Royal Ascot.
Gulliver is best on soft ground but, as he showed last weekend, he is not ground dependent and handles good ground well too. Back him each way at 33-1 with either Sky Bet or Unibet.
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One for the horse tracker
Hyperfocus missed the break in the 21-runner 6 furlong handicap at York on Sunday. However, he recovered well to finish 8th, beaten just four lengths by the winner. Hyperfocus is a much better horse on soft ground than the good terrain he encountered at York. Back him to win a big field handicap once he gets the ground conditions he needs to be at his best. Despite being eight years old now, Tim Easterby’s gelding is no back number and he can add to his tally of six career wins.
Bets record for the 2022 Flat season
Pending:
1 point each way Westover in the Cazoo Derby at 20-1, 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 pint each way Gulliver in the Wokingham Handicap at 33-1, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Arcadian Sunrise in the Chester Cup at 16-1, ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 3 points.
1 point each way Morph Speed at 25-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Auditor for the TRU7 Handicap at 16-1, 1/4 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Moss Gill at 12-1 in the Temple Stakes at 12-1, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022 Flat season running total – 3 points.
2021-2 jumps season + 77.95 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 12 of the past 13 seasons. To a 1 point level stake over this period, I have made a profit of 460 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a "point" is your chosen regular stake).