A 14-1 shot with a huge chance of winning the bet365 Gold Cup
Jumps season 2021-2: “max bet” 52
Morning all,
I would like to start by asking a favour. We may not have won the big one last week, but it was a highly profitable three days of Aintree, thanks largely to Party Business’s win in the opening race on Saturday. Our profit for the season now stands at nearly 45 points to recommended stakes. If you have been enjoying these newsletters – and now hopefully making a decent profit on the tips – do please encourage your friends to subscribe. Thanks.
Back to business, and it was disappointing not to land the Randox Grand National having put up Any Second Now each way fully six months ago at 20-1, only to see him come a close second when backed into favouritism on Saturday.
But the novice Noble Yeats was a worthy winner of the Aintree marathon and another feather in the cap for his young Irish trainer Emmet Mullins, who is always thinking "outside of the box" in search of big-race winners.
The race also threw up yet another good media story as the winner’s amateur jockey, Sam Waley-Cohen, was having his last ever race ride. The downside was that two badly injured horses had to be put down in the aftermath of the race: RIP Eclair Surf and Discorama.
This will be a quiet betting week for me as I have no interest in any substantial wagers on the Flat until more horses have recent form. It's a mug's game simply hoping a horse’s trainer has been able to get him or her fit for its seasonal debut.
I am more interested in trying to pick the winner of the last big British staying handicap of the season: the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Park on Saturday week.
I have already put up one bet in the contest, Hewick, at a big price and I hope he will be allowed to take his chance by his Irish connections. But the more I look at the race, the more convinced I am that POTTERMAN can win the race for the second successive year.
He was fortunate to land the spoils 12 months ago because the first past the post, Enrilo, interfered with the third horse, Kitty's Light, not Potterman, who initially finished second. Enrilo was subsequently disqualified in the stewards’ room and Potterman was awarded the race.
If anything, Potterman comes into the bet365 Gold Cup this season with even better recent form having landed a fairly competitive four-runner chase at Kelso last time out, after a much-needed wind operation. He has been raised only 2 lbs in the official ratings for that run, which seems lenient and he has apparently come on for that run too.
Back Alan King's nine-year-old gelding each way at the generally available 14-1, especially as, with a favourable weather forecast, he looks likely to get his preferred good ground at Sandown in ten days' time.
As always, there are any number of dangers in such a hot contest. The consistent Kitty's Light looks a big threat after his huge run to be second to stablemate Win My Wings in the Coral Scottish Grand National at the start of this month.
One for the Horse Tracker
Party Business, who had no luck in running at the Cheltenham Festival, was exceptionally well handicapped in Saturday’s EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle over three miles at Aintree. So I was hugely impressed that Ilikedwayurthinkin could run him to three quarters of a length in second place. The pair pulled 12 lengths or more clear of the rest of the field. Gavin Cromwell's gelding can land a big staying handicap hurdle next time out, either later this season or next. I particularly like the fact that Ilikedwayurthinkin goes on all ground conditions from good to very soft. He’s a winner in waiting and deserves a change of luck.
Bets record for the 2021-2 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Hewick at 33-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Potterman at 14-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled:
1 point each way Spyglass Hill at 20-1 for Grand Sefton Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unseated rider. – 2 points.
1 point each way Coole Cody at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Manofthemountain at 20-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Potterman at 16-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Silver Streak at 12-1 for the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Mac Tottie at 12-1 for the Becher Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Alnadam at 10-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Silver Hallmark at 12-1 for the Racing Post Gold Cup, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Lake View Lad at 12-1 for the Rowland Meyrick, ¼ odds, 4 places.4th+2 points.
1 point each way Highland Hunter at 14-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd +2.5 points.
1 point each way Hold That Taught at 12-1 for the Welsh Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Galahad Quest at 9-1 in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase, ¼ odds,, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 9-1 for the Classic Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. - 2 points.
1 point each way Quinta do Mar at 16-1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR – 2 points.
1 point each way Green Book at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 6 places. 1st 7-1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2 points.
1 point each way Onemorefortheroad at 12-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, 4 places. NR -= 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 11-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Zanza at 20-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
2 point each way Caribean Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Cormier at 14-1 for the Morebattle Hurdle 1/4 odds, 4 places. 1st +17.5 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 16-1 NRNB or the Arkle Chase 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points
1 point each way Full Back at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Chase, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaed – 2 points
1 point each way Epatante at 10-1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. 2nd + 1 point.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 12-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Too Friendly at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 5 places. 5th + 2.2 points
1 pint each way Gowel Road a 16-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, 1/5 odds, 5 places. – 2 points.
1 point each way Buzz at 20-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR – 2 points
1 point each way Shady Operator at 14-1 for the Cross Country Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB or the Grand Annual, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points
2 points win Amarillo Sky at 10-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual. Unplaced. -2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 50-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase 1/5 odd, 5 places. 1st + 60 points.
1 point each way Fanion D’Estruval at 25-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 20-1 NRNB for the Paddy Power Plate 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Global Citizen at 40-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle 1/4 odd, 4 places. NR Stake returned.
1 point each way The Glancing Queen at 10-1 NRNB for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, 1/5 odds, 3 places. NR. Stake returned.
1 point each way Royale Pagaille at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup , 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Jersey Bean at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National 1/4 odds, 4 places. NR. - 2 points.
1 point each way Kitty’s Light at 14-1 for the Scottish Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. 2nd + 2.5 points
1 point each way Innisfree Lad at 33-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 for the Scottish Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. NR. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 16-1 for the Red Rum Chase, ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Gaelik Coast at 20-1 for the Topham Chase ¼ odds, 4 places. NR. – 2 points.
1 point each way Senior Citizen at 11-1 in the Topham, 1/5 odds, 8 places. 8th + 1.2 points.
1 point each way Dans Le Vent at 14-1 in the Aintree 1.45pm race tomorrow, with bet365 1/5th odds, 5 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 12-1 in the Aintree 1.45pm race tomorrow, with bet365, 1/5th odds, 5 places. 1st + 14.4 points.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 for the Grand National, with bet365, ¼ odds, 5 places. 2nd. + 4 points.
1 point each way Dingo Dollar at 50-1 for the Grand National, ¼ odds, 4 places. UR. - 2 points.
1 point each way Good Boy Bobby at 40-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places. PU. - 2 points.
1 point each way Mighty Thunder at 50-1 for the Grand National, with William Hill, ¼ odds, 4 places. PU. – 2 points.
1 point each way Discorama at 33-1 for the Grand National, 1/5 odds, 5 places. PU. - 2 points.
2021-22 jumps season running total + 44.7 points.